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Get Your Bad News Early—Why Next Week’s Meeting Of The Federal Reserve Will Bring More Pain | Forbes

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022 for a second term as Chair ending May 15, 2026. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. There, he was responsible for policy on financial institutions, the Treasury debt market, and related areas. Before joining the administration, he worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City.

The anticipation is palpable as we approach the final Federal Reserve meeting of the year. In this analysis, we delve into the perspectives shared by Steve Forbes, a prominent figure in economic circles, shedding light on the nuances of the upcoming meeting and the broader economic landscape.

Next Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting: No Interest Rate Hike

Come next week, the Federal Reserve is poised to hold its last meeting of the year. The reassuring news echoes through economic corridors: interest rates are not set to rise. A sigh of relief for many, but what does this decision mean for the economic landscape?

Unraveling the Phillips Curve Dilemma

The specter of the Phillips curve looms large over the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process. This economic theory posits an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment, but is it a reliable guide in today’s complex economic terrain?

  • Despite the Phillips curve’s influence, unemployment remains low, and inflation rates have seen a decrease. The paradox raises questions about the validity of this economic model.

Federal Reserve Governors Speak Out

The heartbeat of any Federal Reserve meeting lies in the perspectives of its governors. Steve Forbes dissects the opinions of two key figures:

  1. Chris Waller’s Cautionary Optimism:
    • Expresses concern about inflation.
    • Optimistic about economic activity moderating, hinting at a potential slowdown.
  2. Michelle Bowman’s Skepticism:
    • Not convinced of a slowdown.
    • Advocates for raising rates further to weaken the economy and meet the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Lessons from the 1970s Inflation

Forbes invokes historical precedent, specifically the inflationary challenges of the 1970s. The lesson drawn is clear: the Fed should not hastily ease during inflationary periods. A poignant reminder that controlling inflation demands more than just managing economic growth; it necessitates safeguarding the value of the dollar.

Jerome Powell’s Stance: Navigating the Present to Secure the Future

The current head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, emphasizes a cautious approach. The mantra is clear – don’t ease off the economy until inflation is contained. Powell’s stance reflects a commitment to learning from past mistakes, particularly the inadequacies in addressing inflation during the 1970s.

Forbes’ Prescription for Economic Health: A Shift in Focus

A distinctive feature of Forbes’ analysis is his proposed shift in the Fed’s objective. He advocates for prioritizing a sound and stable dollar over attempts to micromanage the economy. The belief is that such a shift would not only spur economic growth but also foster healthier markets.

Concluding Thoughts and the Road Ahead

As Forbes wraps up his analysis, he leaves us with a stark reality – challenging ideas are resistant to elimination. Looking to the future, Forbes hints at the necessity of a new president with a profound understanding of monetary dynamics to usher in substantial changes.

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