The US dollar index dipped to 92.77 ahead of the non-farm payroll, which is forecast to add 1.6 million in July. That’s less than one-third of the previous month’s 4.8 million. The level of unemployment may have fallen slightly to 10.5% from the previous 11.1%. Politicians are working on the next fiscal stimulus package, but the timeline remains somewhat murky ahead of a self-imposed Friday deadline. The big sticking point is whether or not to resume the enhanced $600-a-week unemployment benefit that was rolled out in March but has since lapsed.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved higher on Thursday, along with the other indexes, as investors and traders await an economic relief package from lawmakers.
US stocks rallied on optimism of the stimulus package and improving labour market, with initial jobless claims falling to 1.18 million, the lowest level since late March. S&P 500 gained for a fifth consecutive day, less than 2% away from its all-time high. Nasdaq +1% to close at another record high. European benchmarks decreased.
👉 Gold hit $2069 Thursday and extended the rally to $2075 in early trading, driven by the lower yield and heightened US-China tensions. Silver traded just below $30 level. WTI crude (XTIUSD) dropped to $41.86.
From the weekly timeframe, traders are urged to pencil in the possibility of a retest as far south as $1,921.00, the previous all-time high point (September 2011). A little bit closer to home, we can see daily flow projects price will likely cross swords with demand (yellow) at $1,941.10/$1,981.20, if a retreat comes to pass.
👉 EUR rose to 1.1876, the highest close price since May 2018. GBP closed at a five-month high of 1.3141 as the Bank of England upgraded 2020 GDP forecast and remained cautious on the negative rate. USDJPY was little changed at 105.54.
👉 AUD surged past 0.72, becoming the best G10 currency overnight. NZD edged higher to 0.6686. CAD eased to 1.3310 despite the USD weakness. Turkish lira tumbled to its record low against the USD.
Here is our Currency Monitoring Chart, as of 9:00 am.
INTRADAY MARKET INSIGHTS
USD/JPY Intraday:
Turning up. The pair has crossed above a bearish channel drawn from August 3, turning the intraday outlook bullish. Currently it has returned to levels above both 20-period and 50-period moving averages. Unless the key support at 105.40 is breached, the pair should target 105.70 and 105.85 on the upside.
EUR/USD Intraday:
The pair is Bullish bias above 1.1855 with a given Pivot at 1.1855. Take long positions above 1.1855 with targets at 1.1895 & 1.1915 in extension. Alternatively, if price will dive below 1.1855, look for further downside with 1.1825 & 1.1800 as targets. In a technical perspective, the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50.
Resistance Levels: 1.1935 | 1.1915 | 1.1895
Support Levels: 1.1855 | 1.1825 | 1.1800
AUD/USD Intraday:
Watch 0.7260 upside. The pair is challenging the overhead resistance at 0.7240 while being supported by the ascending 20-period moving average. The relative strength index is well directed in the 60s, indicating upward momentum for the pair. A break above 0.7240 would trigger a further advance toward 0.7260 on the upside. Only a return to the key support at 0.7215 would bring about a bearish reversal.
NZD/USD intraday:
Upside prevails. The pair edged higher along the upper Bollinger band. The upward momentum is further reinforced by rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages. Hence, as long as 0.6666 is not broken, expect a rise to 0.6717 before targeting to 0.6730 in extension. Alternatively, a break below 0.6666 would open a path to 0.6644 on the downside.
GBP/USD Intraday:
Key resistance at 1.3160. The pair is currently trading at levels around the 20-period moving average, which has crossed below the 50-period one. The intraday outlook remains bearish. Unless the key resistance at 1.3160 (around the upper Bollinger band) is surpassed, the pair should return to 1.3120 and 1.3105 on the downside.
USD/CHF Intraday:
Further upside. The technical outlook of the pair positive as the prices are supported by a rising trend line. The golden cross between 20-period and 50-period moving average has been identified. To sum up, unless the support level at 0.9080 is broken, expect a rebound to 0.9110 and 0.9130 in extension. Alternatively, a break below 0.9080 would bring a return with 0.9060 and 0.9045 as targets.
USD/CAD Intraday:
Rebound expected. The pair posted a rebound and struck to the upper Bollinger band. The relative strength index is heading upward, suggesting the upside momentum for the prices. To conclude, as long as 1.3285 holds on the downside, look for a bounce with targets at 1.3335 and 1.3370 in extension. In an alternative scenario, a break below 1.3285 would turn the outlook to negative and call for a drop with 1.3260 and 1.3240 as targets.
EUR/JPY Intraday:
Upside prevails. The pair posted a rebound and returned the level above both 20-period and 50-period moving averages. Besides, the 20-period moving average is turning upward. Therefore, as long as 125.01 acts as the key support level, expect a new challenge to 125.71 and even to 125.88 in extension. On the other hand, crossing below 125.01 would call for a drop with 124.73 as a target.
EUR/GBP Intraday:
Bounce. The pair rebounded from 0.8983 and crossed above both 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is locating at 60s, suggesting the upside momentum for the prices. In this case, unless the support level at 0.9009 is violated, the pair should bring an advance to 0.9070 and even to 0.9085 in extension. On the other hand, breaking below 0.9009 would call for a drop to 0.8993 as a target.
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