Today has been exceptionally busy, which is why our article publication took a bit longer than usual. We’ve encountered several challenging issues that we’ve been diligently working to address. However, it’s essential to recognize that not every problem has a straightforward solution. At times, it’s best to let certain matters resolve themselves naturally.
In life, it’s crucial for individuals to remain calm when facing various challenges. There are instances where reacting impulsively out of frustration can worsen problems rather than lead to solutions. This principle also applies to Forex Trading – maintaining a stable psychological and emotional state is vital when dealing with the trading platform. Your risk increases when you’re not in the right mindset, and it can lead to less precise decision-making.
👉 Risk-off: Stocks have been falling and the dollar recovering amid worrying US coronavirus figures and also concerns about the policies of Joe Biden, who is challenging President Donald Trump.
👉 Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden delivered a speech about the economy and said that “the era of shareholder capitalism must end” and that “Wall Street bankers and CEOs didn’t build America” – comments that sent shivers down investors’ spines. He’s leaning toward the left-wing of his party may trigger more volatility ahead of the elections.
👉 Brexit Risks Keep Sterling Under Pressure – Sterling continues to lag behind most other G10 currencies despite recovering some ground in recent weeks on an improved U.K. economic outlook following the easing of coronavirus restrictions, Commerzbank says. “The reason for the weak pound in our view primarily lies in increased Brexit risks,” Commerzbank FX analyst Thu Lan Nguyen says. As U.K.-EU trade talks have made no progress so far, the probability of a no-deal Brexit has “increased significantly” and that should weigh on sterling in the near-term, she says.
👉 The U.K. is lagging behind its European peers in resuming normal activities, Danske Bank says, citing the latest Google mobility data tracking the movement of people to retail and recreation locations. “Google mobility data points to improvements in social life in Japan, the U.S. and some European countries but the U.K. remains far behind,” Danske analysts say. “Electricity demand in the U.K. is still very low, while the U.S. is back to normal levels.” German restaurant bookings have recovered but the U.S. is falling behind, likely due to a late reopening in some states and still-elevated coronavirus infection numbers, the analysts say.
👉 The U.S. Labor Department reported that Initial Jobless Claims declined to 1.314 million for the week ended July 4 (1.375 million expected), meaning nearly 50 million Americans have filed for such benefits since mid-March. Continuing Claims fell to 18.062 million for the week ended June 27 (18.800 million expected).
👉 Coronavirus: The World Health Organization confirmed that coronavirus can spread through the air. The global number of COVID-19 infections topped 12 million and mortalities surpassed 540,000. Meanwhile, investors began to doubt smooth reopening from the coronavirus shutdowns. As new infections per day in the U.S. spike to more than 50,000, state governors are slowing the return to business.
Here are the High Impact Economic events expected today:
As we have observed earlier in the Currency Monitoring Chart, we discovered that CAD/JPY lines are separated with the farthest distance.
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INTRADAY MARKET INSIGHTS
USD/JPY Intraday:
Caution. The pair is testing the key support at 107.15 (around the lower Bollinger band) and therefore caution is advised. As long as this level holds as the key support, the pair stands chances of revisiting 107.35 on the upside. Alternatively, a clear break below 107.15 would open a path toward 107.05 on the downside.
EUR/USD Intraday:
Downside prevails. The pair remains on the downside after retreating from an intraday high of 1.1370 seen yesterday. Currently it is still capped by the descending 20-period moving average. Unless the key resistance at 1.1315 is surpassed, the pair should sink toward 1.1265 and 1.1245 on the downside.
AUD/USD Intraday:
Under pressure. The pair is under pressure below the resistance level at 0.6975 and the declining 20-period moving average. The relative strength index is locating at 30s, suggesting the downward momentum for the prices. Hence, as long as 0.6975 is not surpassed, look for a further downside with targets at 0.6935 and 0.6920 in extension. In an alternative scenario, a break above 0.6975 would trigger a technical rebound with 0.6990 and 0.7000 as targets.
NZD/USD intraday:
Turning down. The pair retreated and struck to the lower Bollinger band. Besides, the death cross between 20-period and 50-period moving averages has been identified, indicating a bearish signal. To conclude, unless the resistance level at 0.6593 is violated, the pair should reach 0.6530 and 0.6511 on the downside. On the other hand, crossing above 0.6593 would turn the outlook to positive and bring a new challenge to 0.6624 as a target.
GBP/USD Intraday:
Downside prevails. The pair retreated from 1.2670 and broke below both 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the relative strength index is heading downward toward the oversold level at 30, suggesting the downside momentum for the prices. Therefore, as long as 1.2625 acts as the resistance level, a further decline to 1.2580 and even to 1.2560 seems more likely to occur. Alternatively, a break 1.2625 would trigger a bounce with 1.2650 and 1.2670 as targets.
USD/CHF Intraday:
Further advance. The pair has validated an inverted head and shoulder pattern, indicating a bullish reversal signal. The upward momentum is further reinforced by both rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages. To sum up, as long as 0.9390 is not broken, expect a continuation of rebound with targets at 0.9415 and 0.9430 in extension. Alternatively, only a break below 0.9390 would turn the outlook to negative and call for another drop with 0.9370 and 0.9355 as targets.
USD/CAD Intraday:
Upside prevails. The pair has rebounded sharply after reaching the day-low of June 23. In fact, the 20-period moving average has crossed above the 50-period one, while the relative strength index has climbed to the 60s, signaling a bullish bias. Unless the key support at 1.3560 is violated, the pair should target 1.3600 and 1.3625 on the upside. Alternatively, below 1.3560, expect a return to 1.3535 on the downside.
EUR/JPY Intraday:
Under pressure. The pair has broken below its previous trading range. Currently, the 20-period moving average has dropped further below the 50-period one, while the relative strength index has plunged to the 30s, indicating a bearish bias. Below the key resistance at 121.36, expect a decline to 120.38 and 120.11. Alternatively, a break above 121.36 would trigger a rebound to 121.80.
EUR/GBP Intraday:
Rebound. The pair maintains a bullish bias above the key support at 0.8926. In fact, it has rebounded to levels above the 20-period moving average, which is turning upward. As long as the key support at 0.8926 holds, expect a further rebound to 0.8988 and 0.9005. Alternatively, a break below 0.8926 would open a path to 0.8897 on the downside.
