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USD/CAD Downtrend Accelerates Amid Market Fluctuations

The USD/CAD pair is showcasing a strongly developing downtrend, struggling to reverse recent losses in early Asian trade as it hovers near the 1.3570 mark. This trend offers key insights into the pair’s future movements.

Key Points:

  • 📉 Downtrend Dominance: Despite a slight recovery from the daily low just under 1.3550, USD/CAD’s overall trend remains bearish, suggesting a pause rather than a reversal.
  • 🚧 Resistance Challenges: Any USD rebounds are likely to face resistance at around 1.3600/1.3610, with stronger barriers near 1.3650/1.3660.
  • 📊 Technical Indicators: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicators support the downtrend, with potential retesting of major support at 1.3550.

USD/CAD Daily Chart

29 November 2023, 14:02 – USD/CAD: Strongly Developing Downtrend on the Charts – Scotiabank

In early Asian trade, the USD/CAD pair exhibited significant losses, dropping to the mid-1.35 area before witnessing a steady reversal. Despite this, the overall trend remains decisively negative, as analyzed by economists at Scotiabank.

The CAD’s positive trajectory counters the recent slide of the USD, indicating a limited scope for gains in this context. The market demands substantial work in the coming days if there’s to be any indication of a USD reversal. However, the prevailing market signals suggest merely a temporary halt in what is a clearly developing downtrend for the USD/CAD on the charts.

The resistance levels are set around 1.3600/1.3610 and stronger at 1.3650/1.3660. Any attempts for a USD rebound will likely encounter these hurdles.

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Hovers Near 1.3570 After Recovering Intraday Losses – 29 November 2023, 10:13

Struggling to maintain its ground, the USD/CAD pair grapples with a three-day losing streak, barely recovering from its intraday losses and hovering around 1.3570 during European hours on Wednesday. The pair’s challenges are compounded by a softer US Dollar and bolstered Crude oil prices.

Technical indicators align with the downward trend. The MACD line’s position below the centerline and signal line indicates bearish momentum, while the 14-day RSI below 50 further reinforces this sentiment, signaling potential retesting of the major support level at 1.3550. A decisive break below this point could push the pair towards the psychological support region around 1.3500.

Conversely, a breakthrough above the 1.3600 mark might pave the way to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3625 and the seven-day EMA at 1.3628. Surpassing these resistance areas could open opportunities for the pair to explore higher levels, potentially around the 1.3650 zone.


CURRENT TREND: The current trend is a strongly developing downtrend, as indicated by the prevailing market sentiment and technical indicators.

TRADE SIGNAL: The trade signal is bearish, based on the analysis of the Ichimoku Cloud, MACD, and RSI across multiple timeframes (Daily, H4, H1).


  • A potential entry could be at the retest of the 1.3600 psychological level, which aligns with the Ichimoku Cloud resistance in the H4 timeframe and is also just below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
  • A more conservative entry could be after a confirmed break below the 1.3550 support level if the downward momentum continues.


  • The first take profit level could be set around the 1.3500 psychological support, which may serve as a short-term floor for price action.
  • Further take profit levels could target previous lows or significant Fibonacci extension levels, adjusted according to the prevailing market structure and momentum.


  • A stop loss could be placed above the 1.3660 level, where stronger resistance is anticipated.
  • This would also protect against any potential reversal patterns or shifts in market sentiment that could invalidate the bearish outlook.

USD/CAD H4 Chart

Technical Analysis:

  • Daily Chart: The Ichimoku Cloud is bearish with the price trading below the cloud, indicating a strong downtrend. The MACD is below the signal line and the zero line, suggesting bearish momentum. The RSI is below 50, which supports the bearish sentiment.
  • H4 Chart: The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud, confirming the bearish trend. There is resistance near 1.3600, which has been identified as a key level by market analysts. The MACD remains bearish, and the RSI is just under the 50 mark, indicating the potential for continued downward movement.
  • H1 Chart: The price is rebounding towards the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a potential resistance retest. The MACD is attempting to cross above the signal line, suggesting caution for immediate bearish entries. RSI is approaching the mid-line, showing a lack of clear directional strength in the short term.

USD/CAD Hourly Chart

Fundamental Analysis:

  • USD/CAD’s recent price action has been influenced by a softer US dollar and rising crude oil prices, which typically support the Canadian dollar.
  • Economists suggest that while there is a rebound from daily lows, the trend remains firmly bearish for the USD against the CAD.

Geopolitical Events:

  • Ongoing monitoring of crude oil price fluctuations, as well as any changes in US or Canadian monetary policy, trade relations, or economic indicators, is critical. These factors can lead to significant volatility and trend shifts in USD/CAD.

This trade plan considers both technical and fundamental factors, as well as market sentiment. The plan should be reviewed frequently to ensure it aligns with the latest market developments and data releases. As with any trading plan, risk management is essential, and the use of stop losses is recommended to protect against adverse market moves.

The USD/CAD pair’s current trajectory offers crucial insights into market dynamics, with technical indicators playing a pivotal role in forecasting future movements. As the forex market continues to evolve, the USD/CAD pair remains a significant barometer of changing economic conditions.