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Fed’s Rate Decision and Consumer Price Data Awaited

Market Update - Daniel Ang The Accidental Trader Traders Academy International 11

U.S. Equity Markets Close Slightly Higher as Investors Anticipate Fed’s Move

In today’s market update, we’ll take a look at the recent performance of U.S. equity markets and the factors driving investor sentiment. With the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and the release of consumer price data looming, market participants have been cautiously positioning themselves for potential outcomes. Additionally, we’ll explore the currency markets, where the Dollar has gained traction against the Euro and Japanese Yen due to expectations of continued rate hikes. We’ll also delve into the surprising rate increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and its impact on the Australian Dollar. Furthermore, we’ll discuss the Fed’s potential pause in June, recent employment data, and supply chain pressures. Finally, we’ll touch upon the performance of precious metals, crude oil prices, and the latest developments in the cryptocurrency market.

U.S. Equity Markets:
On Tuesday, U.S. equity markets closed marginally higher as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and upcoming consumer price data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 10.42 points, or 0.03%, to reach 33,573.28. The S&P 500 gained 9.94 points, or 0.23%, closing at 4,283.73. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite added 46.99 points, or 0.36%, reaching 13,276.42. These modest gains reflect the cautious stance of market participants, who are keenly observing the upcoming events that could shape the market’s direction in the short term.

Consumer Price Index (CPI):
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to reveal a slight cooling of consumer prices on a month-over-month basis in May. However, core prices are anticipated to remain elevated. As a result, the consensus is that the Fed will hold interest rates. Recent dovish remarks from Fed officials have increased the probability of a rate hold at the June 13-14 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Currency Markets:
In currency markets, the Dollar has gained strength against the Euro and Japanese Yen. This upward momentum is primarily driven by the expectation that the Federal Reserve will continue its path of rate hikes. In contrast, the Australian Dollar experienced a significant jump following the RBA’s surprise rate increase. The AUD/USD pair reached its highest level since mid-May after the RBA unexpectedly raised interest rates by a quarter-point, bringing them to an 11-year high of 4.1%. The central bank also indicated that further tightening might be necessary to achieve its inflation target.

Fed’s Potential Pause in June:
The Fed is likely to pause during its FOMC meeting next week as it assesses the impact of the recent rate hikes on the economy. The decision to hold rates reflects the cautious approach taken by the central bank, ensuring that the measures implemented do not hinder economic growth. The recent non-farm payrolls data, which indicated the addition of 339,000 jobs in May, further bolstered the Dollar. However, at the beginning of the week, the Dollar faced downward pressure after the U.S. services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report showed sluggish growth in May, with new orders at a three-year low.

Supply Chain Pressures:
Recent data from the New York Fed revealed a cooling of supply chain pressures in May. This development alleviates one of the key factors contributing to the surging inflation pressures witnessed worldwide. The easing of supply chain bottlenecks has a positive effect on market sentiment, as it suggests a potential reduction in inflationary pressures and provides room for the Fed to carefully consider its next moves.

In the commodities market, precious metals traded within narrow ranges as traders awaited more cues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory ahead of the FOMC meeting. Spot gold rose 1.3% to $1,963.00 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures settled 0.26% higher at $1,979.30 per ounce. Spot silver, on the other hand, remained relatively unchanged at $23.60 per ounce.

Crude Oil Prices:
Crude oil prices experienced a decline following the announcement by OPEC+ of another 1 million barrel per day production cut by Saudi Arabia. Europe’s Brent oil contract and WTI crude initially fell by more than two percent before recovering some losses. This drop came after news that Riyadh reduced daily output by one million barrels for July, aiming to stabilize prices. The decision was made during a weekend meeting of the 23-nation OPEC+ oil producers’ alliance, which also agreed to extend the existing production cuts until the end of the following year.

Cryptocurrency Market:
In the cryptocurrency market, Coinbase Global shares plummeted after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against the crypto exchange, accusing it of operating without proper registration. This incident occurred just a day after the SEC sued the largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, and its chairman, CZ Zhao. Coinbase shares initially fell over 19% before recovering some of the losses.

Bitcoin (BTC), however, remained stable above $25,000, despite the SEC’s lawsuit against Binance and Coinbase. BTC experienced a marginal low at $25,350 before surging over 5.5% to $27,147 at the time of writing. The latest developments highlight the regulatory challenges facing the cryptocurrency industry and the potential impact on market participants.

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