On Friday, January 6th at 9:30 pm Ph time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for December 2022, providing insight into the state of the US labor market. Economists expect the report to show 200,000 job gains for the month, lower than the 263,000 reported in November but still indicative of a healthy expansion in the labor market. However, there are three potential scenarios for the report’s release.
The first scenario is that the report meets expectations, showing job gains of around 200,000. While this would be positive for workers, it could be concerning for the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is focused on non-shelter core services inflation, or price increases in areas such as accounting, gardening, and medical visits, which are related to wages. In this scenario, markets may be uncertain, leading to a potential gain for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset. However, the Dollar’s gains may be short-lived as investors await the release of the Consumer Price Index report next week.
The second scenario is that the report shows strong job gains, surpassing expectations of around 200,000, similar to the strong results seen in the NFP releases for October and November. This outcome is supported by consistently low weekly jobless claims and strong JOLTs job openings data, which shows a high number of job openings relative to the number of job seekers.
The third scenario is that the report shows weaker-than-expected job gains or even job losses, potentially due to layoffs in the tech sector and a discrepancy between the two surveys included in the NFP report. The Establishment Survey, which is the basis for the headline NFP figure, has been strong, while the Household Survey has shown weaker results. If the Household Survey shows a significant decline, it could weigh on the overall NFP results. In this scenario, the US Dollar may weaken.
Regardless of which scenario plays out, the NFP report will be a critical indicator for the Federal Reserve as it considers its monetary policy. Rising inflation and interest rates have already impacted the housing sector, and the NFP report will provide insight into whether the labor market is also being affected.
It is worth noting that the NFP has consistently beaten expectations in recent releases, so it is possible that the report will show stronger job gains than expected. However, with the tech sector facing layoffs and the discrepancy between the two surveys included in the NFP report, it is also possible that the report could show weaker-than-expected results.
While the NFP report is a key indicator of the health of the US labor market, it is not the only factor to consider when analyzing the state of the economy. Other economic data, such as the Consumer Price Index, gross domestic product, and retail sales, will also provide insight into the overall strength of the economy.
In addition to economic data, geopolitical events and other external factors can also impact the economy and financial markets. For example, tensions with foreign trade partners, natural disasters, and political instability can all affect economic performance.
To sum it up, the NFP report for December 2022 will be a crucial release as it will provide the first top-tier economic data of the year and give insight into the state of the US labor market. While economists expect the report to show job gains of around 200,000, there are three potential scenarios that could play out. Markets and the US Dollar will likely react to the release of the report, but it is important to consider a range of economic indicators and external factors when analyzing the overall health of the economy.
