Fewer Australians were reporting feeling concerned about their personal health due to Covid-19 in June compared with May, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It reports that 54% in June showed concerns compared with 62% in May. Also, around 48% of Australians self-isolated in June compared with 62% in May, while only one-third of people reported that the main use of the government stimulus payment was to pay household bills, the ABS says.
The NZD/USD retains a slight downward bias, but needs to sustain a break below 0.6500 to signal larger losses, Westpac says. The NZD/USD is at 0.6535 early on Monday, hovering near a one-month low. Today’s data slate includes New Zealand’s 2Q retail sales survey. Westpac expects a sharp drop in spending during the lockdown period to be reflected in a 12% drop in quarterly retail sales. PM Jacinda Ardern is also due to announce a decision on whether to ease or extend level 3 activity restrictions in Auckland.
👉 Market sentiment was supported by upbeat economic data. The Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Mangers’ Index (preliminary reading) spiked to 53.6 in August (52.0 expected), and the Services PMI jumped to 54.8 (51.0 expected). Existing Home Sales surged to an annualized rate of 5.86 million units in July (5.41 million expected).
👉 EUR/USD dropped 0.5% to 1.1795. Research firm Markit reported that the eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.7 in August (52.7 expected) from 51.8 in July and Services PMI declined to 50.1 (54.5 expected) from 54.7, suggesting a loss of momentum in the bloc’s economic recovery.
👉 GBP/USD sank 1.0% to 1.3087. European Union’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier said “at this stage, an agreement between the U.K. and the E.U. seems unlikely”. On the other hand, official data showed that U.K. retail sales grew 3.6% on month in July (+2.0% expected). Meanwhile, the Markit U.K. Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.3 in August (54.0 expected) from 53.3 in July and Services PMI climbed to 60.1 (57.0 expected) from 56.5.
👉 USD/CAD slipped 0.1% to 1.3175. Government data showed that Canada’s retail sales increased 23.7% on month in June (+24.5% expected).
👉 USD/JPY was little changed at 105.78.
👉 AUD/USD climbed 0.2% to 0.7196 while NZD/USD lost 0.3% to 0.6535. Official data showed that New Zealand’s 2Q retail sales declined 14.6% on quarter (-15.0% expected).
Here is the Currency Monitoring Chart outlook as of this morning at 11:55 am.
This is NZD/CAD when separated to the group as identified that these to currencies has a huge gap on its data.
The following is USD/JPY looking at 4 hour chart:
INTRADAY MARKET INSIGHTS
The pair has fallen back to levels below both 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Meanwhile, the declining trend line drawn from February is still intact. And the relative strength index is below 50, indicating a lack of upward momentum for the pair. Therefore, the short-term bias continues to be bearish with a key resistance level at 108.15. A decline toward 104.15 and 102.40 on the downside is likely.
1st support – 104.15 (major)
1st resistance – 108.15 (major)
2nd support – 102.40 (moderate)
2nd resistance – 109.65 (moderate)
Although the pair posted a pullback, it is still supported by a rising 50-day moving average. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. To conclude, as long as the support level at 1.1640 is not broken, we anticipate a further upside with targets at 1.2000 and 1.2150 in extension. On the other hand, a break below 1.1640 would bring a return with 1.1490 and 1.1380 as targets.
1st support – 1.1640 (major)
1st resistance – 1.2000 (moderate)
2nd support – 1.1490 (minor)
2nd resistance – 1.2150 (moderate)
The pair is holding on the upside and is supported by a rising 50-day moving average. The relative strength index remains above its neutrality level at 50, suggesting the lack of downward momentum for the prices. To conclude, as long as 0.7000 acts as the key support level, short term bullish bias remains with up targets at 0.7300 and 0.7390 in extension. On the other hand, below 0.7000, expect a pullback with 0.6835 and 0.6650 as targets.
1st support – 0.7000 (major)
1st resistance – 0.7300 (moderate)
2nd support – 0.6835 (moderate)
2nd resistance – 0.7390 (major)
The pair retreated and struck to the lower Bollinger band. In addition, the death cross between 20-day and 50-day moving averages has been identified, indicating a bearish signal. To conclude, unless the resistance level at 0.6690 is violated, the pair should sink to 0.6480 and even to 0.6375 in extension. On the other hand, only a break above 0.6690 would turn the outlook to positive and call for a new rise with 0.6790 and 0.6900 as targets.
1st support – 0.6480 (minor)
1st resistance – 0.6690 (major)
2nd support – 0.6375 (major)
2nd resistance – 0.6790 (moderate)
The pair keeps trading within a consolidation range after a recent rally. In fact, support is provided by the 20-day moving average, which stays above the 50-day one. The relative strength index stands above the neutrality level of 50, suggesting a bullish bias. Unless the key support at 1.2880 is violated, the pair should target 1.3270 and 1.3515 on the upside. Alternatively, below 1.2880, expect a pull-back to 1.2670.
1st support – 1.2880 (major)
1st resistance – 1.3270 (major)
2nd support – 1.2670 (moderate)
2nd resistance – 1.3515 (major)
The pair is trading within a bearish flag pattern. Currently, it is capped by both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, while the relative strength index stays in the 40s, signaling a bearish bias. As long as the key resistance at 0.9200 holds, expect a decline to 0.9000 and 0.8940. Alternatively, a break above 0.9200 would open a path to 0.9290 on the upside.
1st support – 0.9000 (major)
1st resistance – 0.9200 (major)
2nd support – 0.8940 (major)
2nd resistance – 0.9290 (moderate)
The pair remains trading within a bearish channel drawn from July. In fact, the 20-day moving average has moved further below the 50-day one, and the relative strength index stays subdued in the 30s, signaling continued downward momentum. Below the key resistance at 1.3430, expect a drop to 1.2950 and 1.2790. Alternatively, a break above 1.3430 would trigger a rebound to 1.3600.
1st support – 1.2950 (major)
1st resistance – 1.3430 (major)
2nd support – 1.2790 (major)
2nd resistance – 1.3600 (moderate)
Rebound. The pair has broken above a symmetrical triangle pattern. In fact, it has bounced to levels above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, while the relative strength index has climbed to the 60s, signaling a bullish bias. Unless the key support at 124.64 is violated, the pair should proceed to 125.33 and 125.51 on the upside. Alternatively, below 124.64, expect a decline to 124.33.
Further upside. The pair is trading within a bullish flag pattern. Currently, the 20-period moving average has crossed above the 50-period one, and the relative strength index stays in the 50s, indicating a bullish bias. Above the key support at 0.8991, expect an advance to 0.9035 and 0.9047. Alternatively, a break below 0.8991 would trigger a pull-back to 0.8970.