While the ‘gold standard’ was abandoned in the 1970s, the metal is still held by central banks across the world for its ability to provide stability: it is perceived as less prone to political or economic volatility and can be converted to cash if necessary.
Even before the pandemic, the global economy was showing warning signs and many countries had begun to hoard more gold.
Many central banks turned from being net sellers to net buyers in 2010. They added 650 tons to their reserves in 2019, the second highest shift in 50 years, after the 656 tons added in 2018. Leading the recent spree has been China, Russia, Turkey, Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan.
Here’s a list of the top ten countries holding the highest official gold reserves. These nations together add up to almost three-fourths of the central bank official reserves globally.
👉 The US electoral campaign heats up after Democratic Challenger Joe Biden made his first appearance with Senator Kamala Harris, his running mate. The highly regarded election forecast by FiveThirtyEight has been published and it shows Biden leading over President Donald Trump, albeit with a high level of uncertainty at this point.
👉 Sino-American tensions remain elevated ahead of a trade review by the world’s largest economies. China aims to put America’s sanctions on TikTok and WeChat on the table. Washington slapped tariffs Berlin and Paris, related to the long-running dispute around Airbus.
👉 The US dollar index (USDX) dipped to 93.39, while the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose to 0.68%. USDJPY extended the rally to a three-week high of 106.87, near the 50-day SMA.
👉 Gold found support at a three-week low of $1862 and rebounded to $1916.60, with the RSI running flat at 50. Silver climbed above $25. WTI crude (XTIUSD) edged higher to $42.50 as US crude oil inventories fell more than expected.
👉 EUR increased to 1.1785 amid the USD weakness despite the resurgent infections and disappointed industrial production. GBP fell to 1.3031 as the UK economy contracted by 20.4% in Q2.
👉 AUD rose to 0.7161 ahead of the July job report (11:30 AEST). NZD was little changed at 0.6579 after a volatile session, with the RBNZ expanding its QE to NZ$100 billion from NZ$60 billion and opening the door for negative rates. USDCAD declined to 1.3248.
👉 NZD/USD is on the back foot after Young Ha, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Chief Economist, said that his institution would like a weaker kiwi. The nation reported 14 additional coronavirus cases with Auckland, the largest city, remaining under lockdown.
👉 Oil prices are holding onto high ground with WTI trading near $43. USD/CAD is changing hands below 1.33.
INTRADAY MARKET INSIGHTS
USD/JPY Intraday:
The pair is in consolidation while the RSI is mixed to bearish.
Pivot: 106.95
Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 106.95 with targets at 106.55 & 106.40 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 106.95 look for further upside with 107.15 & 107.30 as targets.
EUR/USD Intraday:
The bias remains bullish as the RSI shows upside momentum.
Pivot: 1.1800
Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.1800 with targets at 1.1850 & 1.1870 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.1800 look for further downside with 1.1775 & 1.1760 as targets.
AUD/USD Intraday:
The pair bias remains bullish as the RSI is mixed to bullish.
Pivot: 0.7150
Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 0.7150 with targets at 0.7190 & 0.7200 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 0.7150 look for further downside with 0.7140 & 0.7120 as targets.
GBP/USD Intraday:
The upside prevails as the RSI shows upside momentum.
Pivot: 1.3050
Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.3050 with targets at 1.3095 & 1.3120 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1.3050 look for further downside with 1.3035 & 1.3020 as targets.
USD/CAD Intraday:
The pair is under pressure and the RSI is mixed to bearish.
Pivot: 1.3265
Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.3265 with targets at 1.3195 & 1.3180 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1.3265 look for further upside with 1.3290 & 1.3315 as targets.
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