The U.S. dollar kept sliding with the ICE U.S. Dollar Index falling 0.3% to 92.96. Apart from the record shrinking GDP readings, President Donald Trump’s tweet on delaying the November presidential election helped to beat down the greenback.
U.S. official data showed that gross domestic product (GDP) shrank at an annualized rate of 32.9% in the second quarter, the most on record. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 1.434 million for the week ended July 25 (1.445 million expected, 1.422 million in the prior week). Both pieces of data dampened market sentiment.
U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted Thursday morning that the 2020 Presidential election would be the “most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT” election in history and suggested delaying the Nov. 3rd election until “people can properly, securely and safely vote.” The idea was immediately rejected by both Democrats and Republicans in Congress – the sole branch of government with the authority to make such a change.
Under the U.S. Constitution, only Congress can determine the time and manner of the election. The president has no authority to postpone the election. The Constitution also states that an outgoing president will leave office on January 20 following the election year – even if an election does not take place.
Critics and even Trump’s allies dismissed the notion as an unserious attempt to distract from devastating economic news, but some legal experts warned that his repeated attacks could undermine his supporters’ faith in the election process.
👉 US futures were boosted after-hours following big tech earnings in which Apple, Alphabet, Amazon and Facebook all beat on top and bottom lines
👉 U.S. WTI crude oil futures (September) fell 3.3% to $39.92 a barrel, the first close below $40.00 since July 9.
👉 Spot gold price halted its nine-session rally retreating $13.00 to $1,956 an ounce. And spot silver price was down for a third day as shedding 3.3% to $23.50 an ounce.
👉 Looking ahead highlights include EZ CPI (Flash) & GDP (Prelim), US PCE & Core PCE Price Index, Chicago PMI & University of Michigan (Final), Canadian GDP
INTRADAY MARKET INSIGHTS
Toward 104.20. The pair keeps tracing the lower Bollinger band while being capped by the descending 20-period moving average. Strong downward momentum is evidenced by the relative strength index, which is subdued below 30. A cross below the immediate support at 104.45 would trigger a further decline toward 104.20 on the downside. The trailing key resistance has been lowered to 105.00.
Further advance. The pair continues to strike against the upper Bollinger band keeping the intraday bias as bullish. Meanwhile, the relative strength index has climbed into the 70s, indicating continued upward momentum for the pair. Unless the key support at 1.1825 is breached, the pair should target 1.1895 and 1.1920 on the upside.
Watch 0.7245 upside. The pair continues a strong rebound from a low of 0.7117 seen yesterday. Currently, it is trading at levels close to the upper Bollinger band while approaching the overhead resistance at 0.7220. Strong upward momentum is evidenced by the relative strength index, which is well directed in the 70s. Upon reaching 0.7220, the pair should then aim at 0.7245 on the upside. Key support is located at 0.7165.
Upside prevails. The pair edged higher along the upper Bollinger band. The golden cross between 20-period and 50-period moving averages has been identified. Hence, as long as 0.6665 is not broken, expect a further upside to 0.6731 before targeting to 0.6747 in extension. Alternatively, a break below 0.6665 would open a path to 0.6639 on the downside.
Target 1.3180 upside. The pair keep striking against the upper Bollinger band while challenging the overhead resistance at 1.3135. Support is provided by the ascending 20-period moving average, and the relative strength index (in the 70s) is pointing to continued upward momentum for the pair. A break above 1.3135 would call for a further advance toward 1.3180. The trailing key support has been raised to 1.3070.
Downside prevails. The pair has record a series of lower tops and lower bottoms since July 28, confirming a bearish outlook. The downward momentum is further reinforced by both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. Therefore, unless the resistance level at 0.9110 is violated, the pair should reach 0.9060 and 0.9040 on the downside. Alternatively, a break above 0.9110 would trigger a technical rebound with 0.9130 and 0.9150 as targets.
Turning down. The pair retreated from 1.3450 and struck to the lower Bollinger band. Besides, the 20-period moving average is turning downward. Hence, as long as 1.3450 holds on the upside, expect a drop with targets at 1.3380 and 1.3350 in extension. On the other hand, crossing above 1.3450 would call for a new up leg with 1.3475 and 1.3495 as targets.
Further upside. The technical outlook of the pair is positive as the prices have recorded a series of higher tops and higher bottoms since July 28. Currently, the prices are trading above both rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages. To conclude, trading above the key support level at 123.71, the pair should expect a rise to 124.54 before targeting to 124.75 in extension. On the other hand, below 123.71, look for a return to 123.36.
Rebound. The pair posted a rebound and crossed above the 20-period moving average. The relative strength index is around its neutrality level at 50, suggesting the lack of downward momentum for the prices. Hence, as long as the support level at 0.9021 is not broken, intraday bullish bias remains with up targets at 0.9079 and 0.9094 in extension. In an alternative scenario, a break below 0.9021 would bring a further decline to 0.8995 as a target.