The Week Ahead Retail Sales and PMI releases (20th July – 24th July 2020)

On Thursday, the weekly jobless claims are in focus, with the markets wanting a continuation of the downward trend. Sub-1.3m would be needed to ease any jitters over the 2nd wave. The focus will then shift to prelim July private sector PMIs due out on Friday. Again, the services sector will need to return to expansion to support the market optimism over the economic outlook.

EUR/USD Regains 1.1400 Level as the U.S. dollar weakened against its major peers, with the ICE Dollar Index dropping 0.3% on day to 96.01. EUR/USD climbed 0.4% to 1.1428. It is reported that the European Union leaders were yet to agree on the size of a stimulus package, where oppositions led by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte demanded a substantially less figure.

The focus will then shift to Friday, with July’s prelim private sector PMIs due out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone. In support of a speedier economic recovery, consumer confidence will need to continue improving. The ECB and governments are looking for a consumer-led recovery. A pullback in confidence will question the optimistic outlook.

👉 The coronavirus pandemic keeps exploding across the world. The number of confirmed virus deaths has exceeded 600,000 globally, and topped 140,000 in the U.S.

👉 GBP/USD gained 0.1% to 1.2567. USD/JPY fell 0.3% to 107.00. This morning, government data showed that Japan's exports declined 26.2% on year in June (-24.7% expected) and imports slid 14.4% (-17.6% expected). USD/CAD was little changed at 1.3578. Official data showed that Canada's wholesale trade sales grew 5.7% on month in May (+7.9% expected). AUD/USD rose 0.4% to 0.6998 and NZD/USD advanced 0.3% to 0.6558.

👉 Spot gold price rebounded $12.00 (+0.7%) to $1,810 an ounce. U.S. WTI crude oil futures (August) slipped 0.4% to $40.59 a barrel.

Here are the High Impact Economic events expected today:
Economic Calendar (7.20-24.20) - Forex Trading tutorials for beginners in the Philippines

As we have observed earlier in the Currency Monitoring Chart, we discovered that EUR/GBP lines are separated with the farthest distance. Screenshot taken as of 12:57 pm.
Currency Monitoring EURGBP (7.20.20) - Forex Trading tutorials for beginners in the Philippines

Market Sentiment as of today:
Market Sentiment (7.20.20) Understanding the trend - Forex Trading tutorials for beginners in the Philippines

INTRADAY MARKET INSIGHTS


USD/JPY Intraday: 
The pair stays at levels below the key resistance at 108.20 after failing to post a sustainable rebound. And it has not yet broken above the 50-day moving average. The short-term outlook remains bearish, and the pair should target 106.00 and 104.50 on the downside.

1st support - 106.00 (moderate)
1st resistance - 108.20 (major)
2nd support - 104.50 (minor)
2nd resistance - 109.65 (moderate)

EUR/USD Intraday:
The pair has advanced further after validating a Bullish Flag pattern. The relative strength index is well directed in the 60s, indicating upward momentum for the pair. The short-term bias remains bullish, and the pair is expected to proceed toward 1.1565 and 1.1680 on the upside. The trailing key support has been raised to 1.1280 (around the 50-day moving average).

1st support - 1.1280 (major)
1st resistance - 1.1565 (moderate)
2nd support - 1.1180 (major)
2nd resistance - 1.1680 (moderate)

AUD/USD Intraday:
The pair keeps trading on the upside while being supported by the ascending 20-day moving average, which stands above the 50-day one. The relative strength index is still above 50, showing a lack of downward momentum for the pair. The trailing key support has been raised to 0.6890, and the pair is now expected to advance toward 0.7040 and 0.7180 on the upside.

1st support - 0.6890 (major)
1st resistance - 0.7040 (major)
2nd support - 0.6780 (major)
2nd resistance - 0.7180 (moderate)

NZD/USD intraday: 
The pair is supported by a bullish trend line drawn from March. Currently, support is provided by both the rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages, while the relative strength index stands firmly in the 50s, indicating that the bullish bias persists. As long as the key support at 0.6460 holds, the pair should target 0.6630 and 0.6730 on the upside. Alternatively, below 0.6460, expect a return to 0.6370 on the downside.

1st support - 0.6460 (major)
1st resistance - 0.6630 (moderate)
2nd support - 0.6370 (major)
2nd resistance - 0.6730 (major)

GBP/USD Intraday: 
The pair maintains a bullish bias above the key support at 1.2400. Currently, it is trading at levels above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, while the relative strength index stays above the neutrality level of 50, signaling a bullish bias. Above the key support at 1.2400, expect an advance to 1.2815 and 1.2980. Alternatively, a break below 1.2400 would trigger a pull-back to 1.2245.

1st support - 1.2400 (major)
1st resistance - 1.2815 (major)
2nd support - 1.2245 (major)
2nd resistance - 1.2980 (moderate)

USD/CHF Intraday: 
The pair is trading within a bearish descending triangle. In fact, it is capped by the descending 20-day moving average, which stays below the 50-day one. The relative strength index remains subdued in the 30s, suggesting a bearish bias. Below the key resistance at 0.9480, expect a decline to 0.9355 and 0.9255. Alternatively, a break above 0.9480 would trigger a rebound to 0.9550.

1st support - 0.9355 (major)
1st resistance - 0.9480 (major)
2nd support - 0.9255 (major)
2nd resistance - 0.9550 (major)

USD/CAD Intraday: 
The pair maintains a bearish bias below the key resistance at 1.3720. Currently, it is hovering around the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, while the relative strength index is lingering around the neutrality level of 50. As long as the key resistance at 1.3720 holds, the pair should proceed to 1.3490 and 1.3300 on the downside. Alternatively, above 1.3720, expect a rebound to 1.3870.

1st support - 1.3490 (major)
1st resistance - 1.3720 (major)
2nd support - 1.3300 (major)
2nd resistance - 1.3870 (major)

EUR/JPY Intraday: 
Target 123.14. The pair keeps trading within a consolidation range after a recent rally. Currently, it is trading at levels above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, while the relative strength index stands above the neutrality level of 50, indicating a bullish bias. Unless the key support at 122.03 is violated, the pair should target 122.90 and 123.14 on the upside. Alternatively, below 122.03, expect a drop to 121.62.

EUR/GBP Intraday: 
Upside prevails. The pair remains on the upside after breaking a symmetrical triangle. In fact, support is provided by the ascending 50-period moving average, while the relative strength index stands in the 50s, suggesting a bullish bias. As long as the key support at 0.9075 holds, the pair should proceed to 0.9133 and 0.9150 on the upside. Alternatively, a break below 0.9075 would trigger a pull-back to 0.9047.