Japan’s Longest-Serving Premier Abe Resigns Due to Health

Japan’s PM Shinzo Abe resigns over health concerns, says he is ‘struggling’ with recurrence of ulcerative colitis


 Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe resigned to undergo treatment for a chronic illness, ending his run as the country’s longest serving premier.

๐Ÿ‘‰ Abe’s resignation ends his run as the country’s longest serving premier. The 65-year-old said he had been struggling with a relapse of his chronic illness
๐Ÿ‘‰ ‘Poor health should not lead to wrong political decisions,’ he said, explaining his decision to resign

(Bloomberg) -- Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he would resign to undergo treatment for a chronic illness, ending his run as the country’s longest serving premier in an announcement that surprised some members of his party.

Abe confirmed reports that he was dealing with ulcerative colitis, a chronic digestive condition that also forced him to step down as premier in 2007. He said he would stay on until leaders of his Liberal Democratic Party hold an internal vote to pick a successor, and then he would like to remain a lawmaker after handing over power. A general election isn’t due until October of next year.

“I am not confident of responding to the trust of the people while I am dealing with my illness and treatment and my health is not good,” Abe said. “There may have been things about the way I’ve explained myself that I should reflect on, and if I’ve been misunderstood then I need to reflect on that too, but I want to say that I never exploited my position for my own gain.”


The Topix index closed 0.7% lower after falling as much as 1.6%, while the yen strengthened 0.5% to 106.03 per dollar as of 5:26pm in Tokyo. Abe spoke for a few minutes Friday ahead of the reports, where he told a meeting of the government’s virus task force his administration has put together a new plan to combat Covid-19 ahead of the winter flu season.

The decision appeared to catch key members of Abe’s ruling party off guard. Just yesterday, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said in an interview that Abe should be able to serve out the rest of his term as party leader.

“It was an absolute surprise since it was so sudden,” Tomomi Inada, the LDP’s deputy secretary general, told reporters. “I hadn’t expected it.”

Abe’s record-setting run brought stability to Japan after a revolving door of six administrations, including a previous stint by the 65-year-old leader. He helped Japan escape from a cycle of deflation, endured a Trump administration that questioned the nation’s only military alliance, and worked to improve ties with its biggest trading partner China, which were at their most hostile in decades when he took office.
Abenomics (ใ‚ขใƒ™ใƒŽใƒŸใ‚ฏใ‚น, ๅฎ‰ๅ€ใƒŽใƒŸใ‚ฏใ‚น, Abenomikusu) refers to the economic policies advocated by Shinzล Abe since the December 2012 general election, which elected Abe to his second term as Prime Minister of Japan.

Abe is perhaps best known for his plans to revive the flagging economy through unprecedented monetary easing and regulatory reform that was eventually labeled “Abenomics.” He has been seen as a steady hand who has consolidated power during his record run and been able to overcome scandals, including one that came to light in 2017 over questionable government land allocations for schools provided to associates of Abe and his wife Akie.

“It’s highly unlikely in our view that any successor will pursue policies that are going to be vastly different from the current direction,” Kathy Matsui, vice chair of Goldman Sachs Japan and coiner of the term Womenomics, said on Bloomberg Television. “We continue to expect any successors continue with aggressive fiscal and monetary easing.”

It was uncertain when the party would hold a vote to pick Abe’s successor. Toshihiro Nikai, the secretary general of the LDP, didn’t provide a date for when the party election would be held, telling reporters after Abe spoke that leaders will listen to opinions before deciding on an election method.

Top contenders include Suga, Finance Minister Taro Aso and Shigeru Ishiba, a former defense minister, who is currently the voters’ top choice to take over. He has backed economic policies seen as more populist than Abe’s, and said in an interview in April that too much wealth was accumulating in the hands of stockholders and company owners.

‘Tug of War’


“The tug of war will start now,” said Tomoaki Iwai, a professor of political science at Nihon University. “Suga’s name will come up. But if they hold a party leadership election, they need to think about the general election and people like Ishiba will have an advantage.”

Abe has had little time away from work as the coronavirus continues to spread throughout Japan, triggering the worst economic contraction on record in the April-June quarter. As virus numbers have increased in recent weeks, Abe’s approval slid to a record low of 35.4% in a poll published by JNN in early August, with critics saying his policies have come too late and fallen short of needs.

This month, Japan’s two largest opposition parties said they would merge, as they looked to mount a challenge to the LDP next year. The deal could bring together about 150 lawmakers across both houses of parliament, compared with the LDP’s almost 400.

[source: Yahoo Finance]

Another 1.006 million Americans filed new unemployment claims

Another 1 million Americans filed for first-time unemployment insurance benefits

Another 1 million Americans filed for first-time unemployment insurance benefits last week, as the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic continue to reverberate across the economy.

The Labor Department released its report on weekly unemployment insurance claims Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

๐Ÿ“ŒInitial jobless claims, week ended Aug. 22:


Initial jobless claims, week ended Aug. 22: 1.006 million vs. 1.000 million expected and vs. 1.104 million during the prior week
1.006 million vs. 1.000 million expected and vs. 1.104 million during the prior week

๐Ÿ“ŒContinuing claims, week ended Aug. 15:
14.535 million vs. 14.44 million expected and vs. 14.758 million during the prior week

The report showed back-to-back weeks that jobless claims topped the 1 million mark, following a brief break below that level earlier in August. While an improvement from the pandemic-era high of nearly 6.9 million weekly new jobless claims at the end of March, the weekly new jobless claims sum of 1 million remained far above the 665,000 new claims filed at the pre-pandemic high in March 2009.

Since the week ended March 20 this year, more than 58 million Americans have so far filed new unemployment insurance claims.

The majority of US states reported decreases in unadjusted new claims in this week’s print, reversing the trend seen during the prior week. California reported the greatest number of new claims at more than 209,000, for a rise of 19,000 versus last week. On the other hand, Florida saw the greatest numerical decrease in new unadjusted claims, with these falling by 27,000 to a total of 45,700.

New claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA), or the federal program created to support individuals including the self-employed who are not typically eligible for state jobless claims, rose to 607,806 last week, up from 525,000 in the prior week.

58.4 million jobless claims have been filed so far amid coronavirus outbreak since mid-March (David Foster/Yahoo Finance)
The latest jobless claims report also comes as a number of states received approval to distribute an extra $300 per week in federal enhanced unemployment benefits authorized by President Donald Trump earlier this month. Some economists noted that the benefit may provide an incentive for workers who recently were laid off to file jobless claims after the lapse of the previous $600 per week in augmented benefits that ended late last month. However, only a couple states have begun actually paying out the funds to date.

“The president’s new plan for $300 weekly unemployment checks is getting off the ground very slowly, with many states confused about the need to reprogram their computers when there is only a limited amount of diverted FEMA [Federal Emergency Management Agency] disaster funds to pay out to jobless workers,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist for MUFG Union Bank.

Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims, reported on a one-week lag, improved to a new pandemic-era low for the week ended August 15, taking out the previous low from the week ended August 8.

Continuing claims have declined in seven of the last eight weeks’ worth of reports, as the number of individuals still receiving unemployment insurance benefits retreated. Last week’s insured unemployment rate improved to 9.9% from 10.2%.

Still, at more than 14 million, the expected number of continuing claims held well above the fewer than 1.8 million continuing claims filed weekly in the months preceding the pandemic.

[source: Yahoo Finance]

Japan's Job Conditions May Worsen Further as EUR/USD Regains 1.1800 Level

Japan's Job Conditions May Worsen Further as EURUSD Regains 1.1800 LevelJob conditions in Japan are likely to worsen further as the economy struggles to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, which followed a slump caused by consumption tax increase in October 2019, SMBC Nikko Securities says. Deteriorating jobs conditions aren't fully reflected in the jobless rate as some workers are asked to cut working hours, the brokerage says.Japan's jobless rate was 2.8% in June, up from 2.2% in December. The government's financial support for employers to keep jobs is likely to help prevent jobless rate from shooting up, it says. SMBC Nikko expects the economy to return to pre-tax hike levels around the end of 2023.

EUR/USD advanced 0.4% to 1.1832. Official data showed that Germany's second-quarter GDP was confirmed at -9.7% on quarter (-10.1% expected and previously estimated). On the other hand, the German IFO Business Climate Index rose to 92.6 in August (92.2 expected) from 90.4 in July.

German GDP nose-dived in the second quarter. The initial estimate in July showed that the eurozone locomotive sustained a double-digit drop, with a decline of 10.1%. However, there was some good news on Tuesday, as the decline was not quite as steep as expected. The final GDP reading was revised upwards, to -9.7%. Still, this marked the sharpest decline in quarterly GDP since records were first kept in 1970. The Covid-19 pandemic has caused severe economic damage in the eurozone, and Germany has not been immune. In particular, German consumer spending and exports were down sharply in the second quarter.

Elsewhere, German business confidence continues to move higher. German Ifo Business Climate accelerated for a fourth straight month, rising from 90.5 to 92.6 in August. Is the worst of the economic downturn behind us? Ifo President Clemens Fuest was encouraged by the release, declaring that “the German economy is on the road to recovery”.

๐Ÿ‘‰ S&P 500 (+0.36%) and Nasdaq (+0.76%) extended the rally to new all-time highs on the optimism surrounding the US-China trade talk. Tech rally and strong housing market data offset the unexpected drop of consumer confidence in August. Dow -0.21% after the re-weighting of the index.

๐Ÿ‘‰ The US dollar index (USDX) dipped to 93.01, while the yield on 10-year Treasuries increased to 0.68%. USD/JPY surged to 106.39 despite the USD weakness. Regarding U.S. economic data, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped to a six-year low of 84.8 in August (93.0 expected). New Home Sales jumped to an annualized rate of 901,000 units in July (790,000 units expected).

๐Ÿ‘‰ EUR rose to 1.1833 on the upbeat German IFO business climate index, which increased for a fourth consecutive month. Q2 GDP in the EU's largest economy was upgraded to -9.7% from -10.1%. G10 outperformer GBP advanced 0.67% to 1.3150. European stocks lacked upward momentum. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.30% and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 shed 1.11%, while both Germany's DAX 30 and France's CAC 40 were broadly flat at close.

๐Ÿ‘‰ Gold closed lower at $1927.81 amid the risk-on mood, struggling around the 23.6% retracement level of the March-August rally. U.S. WTI crude oil futures (September) jumped 1.7% to $43.35 a barrel. Hurricane Laura is expected to reach the Gulf of Mexico later this week and traders are watching closely how oil output there would be disrupted.

๐Ÿ‘‰ Positive headlines on US-China relations boosted high-beta currencies. GBP/USD rose 0.6% to 1.3147. USD/JPY climbed 0.4% to 106.37, up for a second straight session. NZD/USD gained 0.3% to 0.6546. Official data showed that New Zealand recorded a trade surplus of 282 million New Zealand dollars (293 million New Zealand dollars surplus expected), where exports totaled 4.91 billion New Zealand dollars (as expected). As market sentiment was boosted by progress in the U.S.-China phase-one trade deal. AUD/USD rose 0.5% to 0.7193, while USD/CAD slid 0.4% to 1.3168.

Here are the High Impact Economic events expected today:



As we have observed earlier in the Currency Monitoring Chart, we discovered that EUR/NZD lines are separated with the farthest distance.
Currency Monitoring EURNZD (8.26.20) - Forex Trading tutorials for beginners in the Philippines

The following is GBP/JPY looking at 4 hour chart:
GBPJPY H4 chart (8.26.20) MetaTrader 4 axicorp financial services


INTRADAY MARKET INSIGHTS


USD/JPY Intraday: 
Turning up. The pair has just bounced to the upside after locating a key support at 106.30 (around the lower Bollinger band). Currently it is striking against the upper Bollinger band calling for acceleration to the upside. A further rally should push the pair towards 106.70 and 106.85 on the upside. Alternatively, a break below 106.30 would open a path toward 106.15 on the downside.

EUR/USD Intraday:
Upside prevails. The pair keeps trading on the upside after crossing above a declining trend line drawn from Aug. 19. Currently it stays at levels above both 20-period and 50-period moving averages, holding the intraday bias as bullish. A further advance should bring the pair to 1.1850 and 1.1880 on the upside. Only a return to the key support at 1.1805 would bring about a bearish reversal.

AUD/USD Intraday:
Further advance. The pair struck to the upper Bollinger band, calling for an upward acceleration. The upward momentum is further reinforced by both rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages. To conclude, as long as the support level at 0.7180 is not broken, look for a further upside with targets at 0.7215 and 0.7230 in extension. Alternatively, a break below 0.7180 would bring a return with 0.7165 and 0.7150 as targets.

NZD/USD intraday: 
Rebound expected. The pair posted a rebound and crossed above both 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is locating at the buying zone between 50 and 70, indicating a bullish outlook. To conclude, as long as 0.6526 holds on the downside, expect a rise to 0.6577 before targeting 0.6590 in extension. On the other hand, a break below 0.6526 would open a path to 0.6503 on the downside.

GBP/USD Intraday: 
Further upside. The technical outlook of the pair is positive as the prices are trading within the bullish channel. The relative strength index is locating at 60s, suggesting a upside momentum for the pair. To conclude, unless the support level at 1.3115 is violated, the pair should rise to 1.3170 and even to 1.3200 in extension. In an alternative scenario, below 1.3115, expect a return with 1.3080 and 1.3050 as targets.

USD/CHF Intraday: 
Under pressure. Although the pair posted a rebound, it is still capped by both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index stays below its neutrality level at 50, showing the lack of upward momentum for the prices. In this case, as long as 0.9100 acts as the key resistance level, expect a drop with targets at 0.9055 and 0.9035 in extension. Alternatively, crossing above 0.9100 would trigger a technical rebound with 0.9120 and 0.9135 as targets.

USD/CAD Intraday: 
Downside prevails. The pair has retreated after reaching the upper boundary of its recent trading range. Currently, it is trading at levels below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, while the relative strength index has dropped below 30, signaling a bearish bias. Below the key resistance at 1.3190, expect a decline to 1.3130 and 1.3110. Alternatively, a break above 1.3190 would trigger a rebound to 1.3210.

EUR/JPY Intraday: 
Further upside. The pair has broken above a bearish trend line drawn from Aug. 13. In fact, the 20-period moving average has moved further above the 50-period one, while the relative strength index has climbed to the 60s, indicating a bullish bias. Unless the key support at 125.61 is violated, the pair should advance to 126.28 and 126.46. Alternatively, a break below 125.61 would trigger a pull-back to 125.31.

EUR/GBP Intraday: 
Bullish bias remains. The pair maintains a bullish bias above the key support at 0.8981. Currently, it has rebounded and is challenging the 20-period moving average, while the relative strength index shows upward momentum. As long as the key support at 0.8981 holds, the pair should target 0.9026 and 0.9037 on the upside. Alternatively, a break below 0.8981 would open a path to 0.8962 on the downside. 

©️Newswires

Canadian Consumers perceive higher inflation ~ Bank of Canada

OTTAWA -- A sizable segment of the Canadian population believe inflation is higher than the actual measured rate, and that is partly attributed to a run up in housing prices in major Canadian cities, a senior Bank of Canada official said.

Canadian Consumers perceive higher inflation ~ Bank of Canada

Lawrence Schembri, a deputy governor at the central bank, said the central bank must strive to explain inflation to Canadians, because a wider gap between actual and perceived inflation could have ramifications on consumer spending and saving, and therefore the broader economy.

"Many people feel that the official inflation rate does not reflect the higher inflation they believe they are facing," Mr. Schembri said, according to prepared remarks he was scheduled to deliver to a virtual gathering of economists. "This gap between perception and measurement has been more pronounced during the pandemic."

The central bank's objective is to set its benchmark interest rate at a level that attains and maintains 2% annual inflation. Consumer-price increases have slowed markedly with the onset of pandemic. For July, Canada's annual inflation rate decelerated to 0.1%, relative to the previous month's 0.7% reading.

Statistic: Canada: Inflation rate from 1984 to 2021 (compared to the previous year) | Statista
Find more statistics at Statista

Mr. Schembri said the Bank of Canada, in conjunction with Statistics Canada, has conducted surveys among the public about their views of inflation. He said the findings indicate consumers' perceived inflation rate is generally above the actual CPI rate--although still "reasonably close" to the 2% target.

"We don't take for granted that inflation expectations are anchored at the target," he said, adding the central bank plans, for the first time, to consult with Canadians when it comes time to renew the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting regime next year. "This mooring will be tested by the very rough economic waters caused by the pandemic."

Research suggests, Mr. Schembri said, that consumers' perception of inflation is likely influenced by the price of houses. Those prices last decade surged upward in metropolitan areas such as Toronto and Vancouver, British Columbia.

Canada's CPI data measures the cost of ownership to maintain a house, but not the price of a house. Over the last two decades, Mr. Schembri said, the price of houses has risen on average more than twice as fast as the cost of maintaining a residence.

USD/CAD Price Analysis: 
Clings to 200-week SMA, 1.3100 in the spotlight

๐Ÿ‘‰ USD/CAD remains on the back-foot near the seven-month low flashed on Monday.
๐Ÿ‘‰ The key SMA probe bears ahead of an ascending trend line from April 2018.
๐Ÿ‘‰ A falling trend line from March offers immediate resistance.

USD/CAD stays pressured around 1.3170 amid the initial Asian session on Wednesday. The loonie pair slumped to the fresh low since late-January on Monday before bouncing back to 1.3217. Though, Tuesday’s selling defied hopes of the pair’s upside even if 200-week SMA confined the latest moves.

Considering the sluggish conditions of RSI and the pair’s sustained trading below the five-month-old resistance line, sellers are likely to keep the reins, which in turn can drive the quote towards the fresh seven-month low around 1.3100, comprising an ascending trend line from April 2018.

In a case where the pair fails to bounce off 1.3100, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 2017-20 upside, near 1.3055, will entertain the bears ahead of the 1.3000 thresholds.

Meanwhile, the buyers will look for entries past-1.3300 with the June month’s low of 1.3315 likely offering additional upside filter.

In doing so, the bulls can target May 2019 top surrounding 1.3565 while late-July peak close to 1.3470 may pose as a buffer.

USD/CAD weekly chart (FXStreet)


©️Newswires

As the FED prepares to meet virtually, the Mechanisms of Monetary Policy are breaking down

As the FED prepares to meet virtually, the Mechanisms of Monetary Policy are breaking down

by Larry Hatheway and Alex Friedman

The S&P500 reached all-time highs last week. Yet the market's recent peak will prove ephemeral if not supported by stronger foundations.

The Federal Reserve will hold its annual Jackson Hole conference this week, albeit virtually. That's a shame, because the absence of the Tetons removes a reminder that the most difficult ascents are only possible with careful planning, strategy, and teamwork. Despite much preparation, the Fed risks a dangerous solo ascent, one that is unlikely to succeed.

To understand why, it is useful to first understand the disconnect between soaring equity markets and pandemic-stricken economic growth, and their relationship to policy fundamentals.

In world equity markets, growth stocks, particularly (very) large capitalization technology stocks such as Apple or Amazon, continue their decade-long outperformance versus value stocks, i.e., those that trade on low prices relative to their earnings. Similarly, quality stocks -- companies with little or no debt and reliable earnings -- are outperforming dividend yielding stocks.

Investors steadfastly prefer visible growth, even at very high valuations, to everything else. The upshot is that a few companies that fit the bill have begun to dominate the broader market index. That is a key reason why one of Wall Street's oldest adages -- "the S&P is not GDP" -- rings especially true today.

Narrow equity leadership reflects a truncated global recovery. On Friday, Eurozone purchasing manager indices revealed a slower pace of growth than anticipated. In China, retail sales have stagnated. In the U.S., a political stalemate risks pushing fresh fiscal stimulus off until after the November elections, perhaps even into 2021. Meanwhile, global pandemic risks remain unresolved. Without visibility or confidence in a sustained global recovery, investors are reluctant to rotate into cheaper cyclical or value stocks, opting instead to pile further into proven winners, above all in the technology space.

Elsewhere, the message is much the same. Global bond yields drifted lower this past week, echoing an uncertain economic outlook. The U.S. dollar languished near recent lows in global foreign exchange markets, reflecting concerns that the Fed will have to shoulder more of the responsibility for the US recovery if domestic politics blunt fresh fiscal stimulus.

As the Fed gathers around its home computers, instead of around Jackson Lake, many expect Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to endorse a variant of inflation-targeting over the cycle, permitting the Fed to ease more and for longer in order to bolster growth and to reinforce its commitment to its inflation objective.

Monetary policy, however, has lost much potency. Despite record low interest rates, U.S. household borrowing contracted at mid-year. Firms have slashed investment in new plant and equipment, and gross fixed capital formation fell by over a third at annualized rates in the second quarter of 2020. While the Fed has nearly doubled the size of its balance sheet in less than five months, most of the liquidity rests idle in bank reserves.
Larry Hatheway

An effective monetary policy operates via several mechanisms. Unfortunately, none of them works very well at the moment. Central banks can offer cheap financing for government spending, but that's of little use if the political consensus to act breaks down, as it has in the U.S. Easy money can induce borrowing and spending in the private sector, but that requires a fall in the real rate of interest, which is difficult to achieve if inflation is also falling. Slashing interest rates can weaken the currency, making exports cheaper, but if foreign economies aren't growing overseas sales won't pick up much. Monetary easing boosts asset prices, but if the associated increase in wealth is in the hands of the "haves," overall spending won't increase much.

Many of these challenges will be on the minds of central bankers as they exchange views over Zoom. Absent the towering Tetons, central bankers may struggle to find much monetary inspiration.

We believe that Powell will indicate the Fed's willingness to tolerate higher inflation. He may emphasize the need for symmetrical inflation outcomes around a 2% objective, permitting the Fed to accommodate an overshoot of inflation now, after a prolonged period of below-target outcomes. If so, the Fed's intention will be to lower real interest rates via a rise in longer-term inflation expectations.

Lowering real interest rates is necessary to boost the effectiveness of monetary policy. But it is not sufficient. As Keynes pointed out nearly a century ago, the real rate of interest will not equilibrate savings and investment at full employment if confidence in the future ("animal spirits") is eroded. Still, in the absence of supportive fiscal measures, the Fed must do what it can.
Alex Friedman

A "looser-for-longer" Fed, acting on its own, is likely to reinforce worrisome trends in financial markets. Investors will remain fixated on stable growth companies and will shun the temptation to rotate into cyclicals or value. Nominal bond yields will remain depressed or fall further, even if market measures of expected inflation move higher. The U.S. dollar will continue to struggle against other major currencies. And gold prices will continue to advance.

Relying on monetary policy alone risks perpetuating unsustainable outcomes, including excessive equity market valuations. That's not the fault of central bankers, who are mandated to do what they can. Fiscal policy must be jump-started.

Yet even the combined efforts of monetary and fiscal easing are, at best, quick fixes to bridge economies and societies to a post-pandemic state where longer-term issues regarding public health, sustainability, and productivity must be tackled.

This week, this missing Tetons will cast a metaphorical shadow over the Fed deliberations. The reason for their absence will be a powerful reminder that we still have our most difficult climbs ahead.

Larry Hatheway and Alex Friedman are co-founders of Jackson Hole Economics, a private research organization.

[source: Barrons.com]

Convalescent Plasma: Covid-19 vaccine boost investor sentiment, Wall Street Rally

Convalescent Plasma: Covid-19 vaccine boost investor sentiment, Wall Street RallyInvestors were encouraged by an emergency authorization on Sunday by President Donald Trump to use convalescent plasma to treat Covid-19 patients. Trump was formally nominated on Monday for a second term in the White House in the Republican National Convention. The FDA determined that it is reasonable to believe that COVID-19 convalescent plasma may be effective in lessening the severity or shortening the length of COVID-19 illness in some hospitalized patients.

A Mayo Clinic–led trial that is collecting data for the National Convalescent Plasma Study of more than 35,000 patients from 2,800 hospitals who received convalescent plasma through the FDA’s expanded use program showed that people who were transfused with convalescent plasma within three days of their diagnosis had lower mortality rates after 30 days compared with those who received the plasma later, and that people transfused with plasma containing higher levels of antibodies also enjoyed lower mortality rates one month later compared with those receiving plasma with lower concentrations of antibodies.


The defensive immune cells in plasma are an attractive target not only for doctors who are desperate for anything to treat their sickest patients, but also for researchers who are eager to mine them for possible drug treatments against COVID-19. Even beyond exploring how plasma from recovered patients can be transfused into sick patients to help them, researchers are also aggressively analyzing this convalescent plasma to isolate the most potent and efficient antibodies and potentially turn them into a treatment that can not only control the disease but maybe even prevent it if given to patients at the right time after their infection.


[source: Time.com]

๐Ÿ‘‰ US stocks extended the rally on positive virus vaccine and treatment headlines. S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at new record highs after adding 1% and 0.6%, with energy and financial leading the charge. Dow +1.35%. European and Asian benchmarks ended higher.

๐Ÿ‘‰ EUR declined to 1.1787 ahead of the German IFO report and Q2 GDP revisions, with France, Germany and Italy recording the highest daily virus cases since April. GBP extended the losses to 1.3063.

๐Ÿ‘‰ EUR/USD was broadly flat at 1.1793. Later today, the German IFO Business Climate Index (92.2 expected) and Expectations Index (98.0 expected) for August will be released. GBP/USD fell 0.2% to 1.3068. USD/JPY gained 0.2% to 105.97.

๐Ÿ‘‰ AUD was steady at 0.7161 and NZD fell to 0.6526 after New Zealand extended the lockdown in Auckland. USDCAD surged above 1.32. CNH strengthened to 6.9116 alongside the China equity market (CN50). NZD/USD slipped 0.2% to 0.6525. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said Auckland's lockdown, which was re-imposed on August 12, will be extended by four days until August 30.

๐Ÿ‘‰  Gold dipped to $1928.94 amid improving sentiment and the USD recovery, sitting just above the 23.6% retracement level of the March-August rally. But the long-term outlook remains supportive due to the lower for longer interest rate stance from global central banks. Silver edged lower to $26.60. WTI crude (XTIUSD) climbed above $42 as Gulf Coast oil production was heavily impacted due to the storms. 

๐Ÿ‘‰ Markets will focus on the Jackson Hole Symposium later this week. Keep an eye on that one.

Here are the High Impact Economic events expected today:



As we have observed earlier in the Currency Monitoring Chart, we discovered that GBP/CAD lines are separated with the farthest distance.
Currency Monitoring GBPCAD (8.25.20) - Forex Trading tutorials for beginners in the Philippines

INTRADAY MARKET INSIGHTS


USD/JPY Intraday: 
Rebound continues. The pair keeps trading on the upside while being supported by the ascending 20-perod moving average. Upward momentum is also evidenced by the relative strength index, which is well directed close to 70. Upon reaching the overhead resistance at 106.05, the pair should then target 106.20 on the upside. Only a return to the key support at 105.80 would bring about a bearish reversal.

EUR/USD Intraday:
 Downside prevails. The pair stays on the downside after retreating from a high of 1.1849 seen yesterday. In fact, it is capped by the descending 20-period moving average, which has crossed below the 50-period one. A break below 1.1775 would trigger a further decline toward 1.1755 on the downside. Key resistance is located at 1.1820.

AUD/USD Intraday:
Under pressure. The pair retreated and broke below both 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the 20-period moving averages crossed below the 50-period one. To conclude, unless the resistance level at 0.7180 is violated, the pair should return to 0.7150 and even to 0.7135 in extension. On the other hand, a break above 0.7180 would trigger a rebound with 0.7200 and 0.7215 as targets.

NZD/USD intraday: 
Downside prevails. The pair is under pressure below both 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is locating at the selling zone between 30 and 50, indicating a bearish outlook. To conclude, as long as 0.6548 is not surpassed, expect a drop with targets at 0.6499 and 0.6486 in extension. On the other hand, crossing above 0.6548 would bring a bounce with 0.6570 as a target.

GBP/USD Intraday: 
Under pressure. Although the pair posted a rebound from 1.3050, it is still capped by a 50-period moving average. Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited by the resistance level at 1.3090. Therefore, as long as this key level holds on the upside, intraday bearish bias remains with down targets at 1.3050 and 1.3025 in extension. Alternatively, a break above 1.3090 would bring a bounce with 1.3115 and 1.3145 as targets.

USD/CHF Intraday: 
Turning up. The pair posted a rebound from 0.9075 and crossed above both 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index also broke above the neutrality level at 50. To conclude, as long as the support level at 0.9100 is not broken, expect a further rise with targets at 0.9135 and 0.9160 in extension. In an alternative scenario, a break below 0.9100 would trigger a drop with 0.9075 and 0.9055 as targets.

USD/CAD Intraday: 
Bullish bias remains. The pair has rebounded after reaching the day-low of August 19. Currently, support is provided by the 50-period moving average, and the relative strength index stands above the neutrality level of 50, indicating a bullish bias. As long as the key support at 1.3190 holds, the pair should advance to 1.3240 and 1.3255. Alternatively, below 1.3190, expect a pull-back to 1.3165.

EUR/JPY Intraday: 
Target 124.33. The pair is capped by a bearish trend line drawn from August 17. In fact, it has broken below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, while the relative strength index has dropped to the 40s, suggesting a bearish bias. Below the key resistance at 125.22, expect a decline to 124.52 and 124.33. Alternatively, a break above 125.22 would open a path to 125.53 on the upside.

EUR/GBP Intraday: 
Towards 0.8982. The pair remains on the downside as it has formed a lower-high. Currently, it has dropped to levels below the 20-period moving average, which is skewing downward. The relative strength index has broken below the neutrality level of 50, signaling a bearish bias. Unless the key resistance at 0.9045 is surpassed, the pair should proceed to 0.8994 and 0.8982 on the downside. Alternatively, above 0.9045, expect a rebound to 0.9066. 

©️Newswires

USD/JPY Struggles for 106.00 as EUR/USD Eases Around 1.1800

USDJPY Struggles for 106.00 as EURUSD Eases Around 1.1800Fewer Australians were reporting feeling concerned about their personal health due to Covid-19 in June compared with May, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It reports that 54% in June showed concerns compared with 62% in May. Also, around 48% of Australians self-isolated in June compared with 62% in May, while only one-third of people reported that the main use of the government stimulus payment was to pay household bills, the ABS says.

The NZD/USD retains a slight downward bias, but needs to sustain a break below 0.6500 to signal larger losses, Westpac says. The NZD/USD is at 0.6535 early on Monday, hovering near a one-month low. Today's data slate includes New Zealand's 2Q retail sales survey. Westpac expects a sharp drop in spending during the lockdown period to be reflected in a 12% drop in quarterly retail sales. PM Jacinda Ardern is also due to announce a decision on whether to ease or extend level 3 activity restrictions in Auckland.

๐Ÿ‘‰ Market sentiment was supported by upbeat economic data. The Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Mangers' Index (preliminary reading) spiked to 53.6 in August (52.0 expected), and the Services PMI jumped to 54.8 (51.0 expected). Existing Home Sales surged to an annualized rate of 5.86 million units in July (5.41 million expected).

๐Ÿ‘‰ EUR/USD dropped 0.5% to 1.1795. Research firm Markit reported that the eurozone's Manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.7 in August (52.7 expected) from 51.8 in July and Services PMI declined to 50.1 (54.5 expected) from 54.7, suggesting a loss of momentum in the bloc's economic recovery.

๐Ÿ‘‰ GBP/USD sank 1.0% to 1.3087. European Union's chief negotiator Michel Barnier said "at this stage, an agreement between the U.K. and the E.U. seems unlikely". On the other hand, official data showed that U.K. retail sales grew 3.6% on month in July (+2.0% expected). Meanwhile, the Markit U.K. Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.3 in August (54.0 expected) from 53.3 in July and Services PMI climbed to 60.1 (57.0 expected) from 56.5.

๐Ÿ‘‰ USD/CAD slipped 0.1% to 1.3175. Government data showed that Canada's retail sales increased 23.7% on month in June (+24.5% expected).

๐Ÿ‘‰ USD/JPY was little changed at 105.78.

๐Ÿ‘‰ AUD/USD climbed 0.2% to 0.7196 while NZD/USD lost 0.3% to 0.6535. Official data showed that New Zealand's 2Q retail sales declined 14.6% on quarter (-15.0% expected).

Here is the Currency Monitoring Chart outlook as of this morning at 11:55 am.
Currency Monitoring (8.24.20) - Forex Trading tutorials for beginners in the Philippines

This is NZD/CAD when separated to the group as identified that these to currencies has a huge gap on its data.
Currency Monitoring NZDCAD (8.24.20) - Forex Trading tutorials for beginners in the Philippines

The following is USD/JPY looking at 4 hour chart:
USDJPY H4 chart (8.24.20) MetaTrader 4 axicorp financial services


INTRADAY MARKET INSIGHTS


USD/JPY Intraday: 
The pair has fallen back to levels below both 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Meanwhile, the declining trend line drawn from February is still intact. And the relative strength index is below 50, indicating a lack of upward momentum for the pair. Therefore, the short-term bias continues to be bearish with a key resistance level at 108.15. A decline toward 104.15 and 102.40 on the downside is likely.

1st support - 104.15 (major)
1st resistance - 108.15 (major)
2nd support - 102.40 (moderate)
2nd resistance - 109.65 (moderate) 

EUR/USD Intraday:
Although the pair posted a pullback, it is still supported by a rising 50-day moving average. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. To conclude, as long as the support level at 1.1640 is not broken, we anticipate a further upside with targets at 1.2000 and 1.2150 in extension. On the other hand, a break below 1.1640 would bring a return with 1.1490 and 1.1380 as targets.

1st support - 1.1640 (major)
1st resistance - 1.2000 (moderate)
2nd support - 1.1490 (minor)
2nd resistance - 1.2150 (moderate)

AUD/USD Intraday:
The pair is holding on the upside and is supported by a rising 50-day moving average. The relative strength index remains above its neutrality level at 50, suggesting the lack of downward momentum for the prices. To conclude, as long as 0.7000 acts as the key support level, short term bullish bias remains with up targets at 0.7300 and 0.7390 in extension. On the other hand, below 0.7000, expect a pullback with 0.6835 and 0.6650 as targets.

1st support - 0.7000 (major)
1st resistance - 0.7300 (moderate)
2nd support - 0.6835 (moderate)
2nd resistance - 0.7390 (major)

NZD/USD intraday: 
The pair retreated and struck to the lower Bollinger band. In addition, the death cross between 20-day and 50-day moving averages has been identified, indicating a bearish signal. To conclude, unless the resistance level at 0.6690 is violated, the pair should sink to 0.6480 and even to 0.6375 in extension. On the other hand, only a break above 0.6690 would turn the outlook to positive and call for a new rise with 0.6790 and 0.6900 as targets.

1st support - 0.6480 (minor)
1st resistance - 0.6690 (major)
2nd support - 0.6375 (major)
2nd resistance - 0.6790 (moderate)

GBP/USD Intraday: 
The pair keeps trading within a consolidation range after a recent rally. In fact, support is provided by the 20-day moving average, which stays above the 50-day one. The relative strength index stands above the neutrality level of 50, suggesting a bullish bias. Unless the key support at 1.2880 is violated, the pair should target 1.3270 and 1.3515 on the upside. Alternatively, below 1.2880, expect a pull-back to 1.2670.

1st support - 1.2880 (major)
1st resistance - 1.3270 (major)
2nd support - 1.2670 (moderate)
2nd resistance - 1.3515 (major)

USD/CHF Intraday: 
The pair is trading within a bearish flag pattern. Currently, it is capped by both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, while the relative strength index stays in the 40s, signaling a bearish bias. As long as the key resistance at 0.9200 holds, expect a decline to 0.9000 and 0.8940. Alternatively, a break above 0.9200 would open a path to 0.9290 on the upside.

1st support - 0.9000 (major)
1st resistance - 0.9200 (major)
2nd support - 0.8940 (major)
2nd resistance - 0.9290 (moderate)

USD/CAD Intraday: 
The pair remains trading within a bearish channel drawn from July. In fact, the 20-day moving average has moved further below the 50-day one, and the relative strength index stays subdued in the 30s, signaling continued downward momentum. Below the key resistance at 1.3430, expect a drop to 1.2950 and 1.2790. Alternatively, a break above 1.3430 would trigger a rebound to 1.3600.

1st support - 1.2950 (major)
1st resistance - 1.3430 (major)
2nd support - 1.2790 (major)
2nd resistance - 1.3600 (moderate)

EUR/JPY Intraday: 
Rebound. The pair has broken above a symmetrical triangle pattern. In fact, it has bounced to levels above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, while the relative strength index has climbed to the 60s, signaling a bullish bias. Unless the key support at 124.64 is violated, the pair should proceed to 125.33 and 125.51 on the upside. Alternatively, below 124.64, expect a decline to 124.33.

EUR/GBP Intraday: 
Further upside. The pair is trading within a bullish flag pattern. Currently, the 20-period moving average has crossed above the 50-period one, and the relative strength index stays in the 50s, indicating a bullish bias. Above the key support at 0.8991, expect an advance to 0.9035 and 0.9047. Alternatively, a break below 0.8991 would trigger a pull-back to 0.8970. 

©️Newswires

What’s in focus for Aug. 24 - 28 on Politics, Economy, Covid and the FED

What’s in focus for Aug. 24 - 28 on Politics, Economy, Covid and the FED

Hello Traders, here below you'll find a list of the scheduled economic events with the highest expected impact for this week in Local timezone (Philippine Time). If you check our Economic Calendar, you will see the full details of each event.

MONDAY

US – The Republican National Conference starts in Charlotte, NC. Trump is due to deliver a speech titled “Land of Greatness” on Thursday. The RNC is unlikely to be a volatility event, but there is little doubt the election is getting ever greater attention from clients and the market, where implied volatility around the 4 November election is certainly elevated relative to say the 2016 election.

Economic Calendar (8.24.20) - Forex Trading tutorials for beginners in the Philippines

TUESDAY

Germany – August IFO survey – this is broken into three sub-components – business climate (consensus expects 92.2 from 90.5 in July), expectations (98.0 from 97.0) and current assessment (86.6 from 84.5). It is worth watching GER30 exposures into this announcement, with the index printing a series of lower highs and low, and looking vulnerable for a potential re-test of the 200-day MA should sentiment sour. Lots of focus on the record EUR future long position held by non-commercial accounts (source: CFTC report), which may be one reason EUR/USD is finding supply easy to come by above 1.1900.

Economic Calendar (8.25.20) - Forex Trading tutorials for beginners in the Philippines

WEDNESDAY

NZ – July trade balance – A surplus of NZD285m is expected, with exports expected to print NZ$4.91b and imports NZD4.63b. Unlikely to be a vol event for the NZD, with traders seeing greater indecision,  as portrayed by the doji on the NZD/USD weekly – hard to call this pair, but the preference is to trade this from the short side.

Australia – Q2 construction work done – Consensus is for a 7% decline. Unlikely to be a volatility event for the AUD.

US – August consumer confidence - the market expects this to tick up to 93.0 from 92.6. Has held a strong correlation with the S&P500 over the years, so it would not surprise to see this data point higher.

Economic Calendar (8.26.20) - Forex Trading tutorials for beginners in the Philippines

THURSDAY

UK – BoE Chief Economist Andy Haldane speaks at Edinburgh. Could be interesting for GBP traders, although GBP/USD 1-week implied volatility sits at the 10th percentile of the 12-month high-low range and therefore traders are not expecting fireworks here. Cable bulls will want a close above 1.3250 for 1.35 to come into play.

Australia – Q2 Private capital expenditure – the market expects an 8.2% decline (economist range is -15% to -5%) in Q2, with spending unsurprisingly shelved due to COVID19. This would represent the second-largest decline ever in the series and will be a key component of the Aussie Q2 GDP calculation released on 2 September. The third estimate of corporate spending intensions for  FY21 will also be released with expectations of around $80b. Hard to do much with AUD/USD given so much will hinge on Jay Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole – prefer AUD/JPY or  AUD/CAD shorts, or EUR/AUD longs, but only on a closing break of 1.6557. Eyes on AUD/NZD given the sizeable gravestone doji on the weekly chart – if this kicks lower then it could confirm the bull move from 1.0650 has come to an end.

Canada – Q2 current account balance –  the market expects this to push out to $12.1b. Unlikely to be a vol even for the CAD, with traders gearing up for the BoC gov’s speech at Jackson Hole.

US – Weekly jobless and continuing claims – the trend of improving labour statistics should be seen, with the market expecting new claims at 1m, while continuing claims should come in at 14.4m.

US – Fed chair Jay Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Easily the marquee event of the week, with his speech revealing the findings of the Fed’s long-running review on monetary policy. There is little doubt Powell will be dovish, but how much is priced in is the question we should ask, and traders will be keen to see how close they are to moving to a more defined forward guidance, and specifically the appetite to move sooner to average inflation targeting. After some disappointment from the July minutes, this is the stage for the market to learn more about where the Fed really sit with potential policy changes.

The bond market is key here, and if Jay Powell can guide inflation expectations higher here, while keeping nominal yields anchored, then the USD bear trend will continue, while gold and tech fire up. Conversely, if the market is disappointed then the real yield could move higher, compelling USD shorts to cover, gold will be hit and the idea of poor breadth/participation in equity markets could actually matter.

Economic Calendar (8.27.20) - Forex Trading tutorials for beginners in the Philippines

FRIDAY

Canada – Bank of Canada Gov Tiff Macklem speaks at Jackson Hole although the topic of the speech has not yet been disclosed. USD/CAD trades in a bear channel and subsequently if trading that, then rallies into 1.3280 could be sold.

Canada – June GDP – the market is expecting a 5.6% gain in June (month-on-month), with the year-on-year print coming in at -8.9%. We can also see expectations for the quarterly annualised print due in at -39%. Again, not expecting this to move the dial too intently.

UK – BoE Gov Bailey speaks at Jackson Hole Symposium, GBP exposures warrant due consideration here.

US – we see July personal income and spending, with consensus at -0.4% and 1.5% respectively. At the same time, we get core PCE deflator (YoY consensus at 1.2%). The University of Michigan release its sentiment survey at 00:00aest, with expectations for an unchanged read at 72.8.

Economic Calendar (8.28.20) - Forex Trading tutorials for beginners in the Philippines

[source: TheDailyFix]