NFP Preview: Forecasts from eight major banks, employment growth still strong

NFP Preview: Forecasts from eight major banks, employment growth still strong

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the August jobs report on Friday, September 2 at 12:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts by the economists and researchers of eight major banks regarding the upcoming employment data.

Expectations are for a 300K rise in Nonfarm Payrolls following the 528K increase in July. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 3.5%.


“We expect job growth in August to be lower than in July, but still in the range of previous months at a still high 375K and the unemployment rate to remain at just 3.5%. The labor market would thus remain tight, signaling to the Fed that further significant rate hikes are necessary to curb inflation.”


“Come August, we again expect a materially softer outcome for nonfarm payrolls (250K), while recognising that risks remain to the upside. For the next few months, the unemployment rate can hold around 3.5%; but from the end of the year, it is likely to begin to trend higher as employment growth slows and participation rises as households seek relief from the loss of real spending capacity.”


“A 250K would still be very respectable and will certainly keep the Fed in hiking mode. With the unemployment rate set to remain at 3.5% and wages continuing to push higher we favour a 50 bps hike on 21 September rather than 75 bps. However, should the economy add substantially more jobs, say 350K+, and the wage number posts a second consecutive 0.5% month-on-month increase, or higher, then it could swing the argument in favour of 75 bps.”


“We expect the series to have continued to advance strongly in August (370K), but at a more moderate pace following the eye-popping 528K increase registered in July, which was a five-month high. We look for the solid gain in employment to also be reflected in another decline in the unemployment rate to 3.4% (second consecutive one-tenth decline). We are assuming an improvement in the participation rate to 62.2% after falling to 62.1% in July. We are also looking for wage growth to slow modestly to a still robust 0.4% MoM after registering an unexpected 0.5% jump last month. The MoM leap should result in a one-tenth increase in the YoY measure to 5.3% in August.”


“We project a 300K increase for August non-farm jobs. A gain near our forecast of 300K implies either a return of workers back into the workforce or further declines in the unemployment rate. We look for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.5%. The return of workers should lift the labor force participation rate from the 62.1 level posted for July.”


“Payroll growth may have come down to just 75K. The household survey is expected to show a stronger gain, a development which could leave the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.5%, assuming the participation rate increased one tick to 62.2%.”


“After a stellar performance in July, the US labor market is poised for a slowdown in August, in line with the cooling in interest-sensitive sectors. The likely creation of 250K jobs would still be a healthy print, however, and that could leave the unemployment rate at a tight 3.5%, assuming some increase in labor force participation. We expect hiring to slow ahead as higher interest rates weigh on activity, something that is a precursor for the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes. Market impact. We’re below the consensus which could be negative for the USD and see bond yields fall.”


“Following a significant upside surprise to nonfarm payrolls in July, we expect a more moderate increase of 305K in August, with mostly balanced risks. Overall, the trend of job growth is likely to slow into the end of the year and 2023 as demand for labor moderates. We expects a 0.4% MoM increase in average hourly earnings in August, a modestly softer increase than in July and the base case is for the unemployment rate to fall further to 3.4% in August after a decline in July to 3.5%.”

President Biden has his lowest support rating since taking office as more Democrats sour on him

President Biden has his lowest support rating since taking office as more Democrats sour on him

According to the most recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey, President Biden has his lowest support rating since taking office, and Democrats are primarily to blame.

Currently, 36% of respondents in the poll approve of Biden. In the data, a 9-point loss inside his own party is to blame for the 4 percentage-point decline from June.

Even while 75% of Democrats support Biden's efforts, that number is deemed low for a president's own party. According to a survey conducted last month, 84 percent of Democrats said they agreed with Biden's job performance.

Republicans and independents support Biden's leadership significantly less; only 5% of Republicans and 28% of independents do so. They are the same as they were a month ago.

For context, Donald Trump's approval within his party when he was president was never that low in the poll, not even after the Jan. 6 insurrection (77%) or the Charlottesville, Va., white supremacist demonstration (76%), at which one person was killed — and whose participants Trump dismissed as "very fine people, on both sides."

In this survey, four times as many respondents said they strongly disapprove of the job Biden is doing than approve — 43% to 11%. And only 30% of Democrats said they strongly approve of the job the president is doing.

Biden has continually faced a lack of enthusiasm among his base. He was never progressives' preferred choice for president, but many held their nose to vote for him against Trump.

That was certainly true for younger voters. In 2020, voters 45 and younger went for Biden by a 56%-42% margin, according to exit polls. But in this survey, 63% say they disapprove of the job Biden is doing. Just 30% approve, compared with 40% of those 45 and older.

Younger voters are also among the least enthusiastic about Biden — just 5% say they strongly approve of the job he's doing, on par with whites without college degrees and white evangelical Christians, reliably Republican voters.

In his run for the White House, Biden promised progressives the political equivalent of the moon, but he has run into the realities of governing.

Many progressives, angry at the conservative lurch in the country due to recent Supreme Court decisions on guns and abortion, say they think Biden simply hasn't acted boldly enough to fight for their initiatives.

Biden's cratered approval numbers are a bad sign for Democrats in this midterm election year. The party in power traditionally faces headwinds in a president's first midterm, and when its president's approval rating is this low, that can spell even more trouble.
US Economics probe XAU/USD Bears

US Economics probe XAU/USD Bears

Gold Price technical outlook

Gold Price extends bounce off an upward sloping support line from March 2021. That said, the corrective pullback from the yearly low also takes clues from the oversold RSI (14) to direct XAU/USD buyers towards a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since early 2021, surrounding $1,721-22.

It’s worth noting, however, that the 78.6/% Fibonacci retracement of March 2021-22 upside, near $1,760, could test the metal’s upside past $1,722, a break of which could quickly propel Gold Price to May’s low near $1,787.

On the contrary, the aforementioned support line from March 2021 joins oversold RSI (14) to restrict short-term XAUUSD declines around $1,709. Also acting as a downside filter is the $1,700 threshold.

In a case where Gold Price remains weak past $1,700, the odds of witnessing a south-run towards early 2021 bottom of $1,676 can’t be ruled out.

US economics also probe XAUUSD bears

Friday’s mostly downbeat prints of the US economics helped strengthen concerns that the market expectations of a 100 bps Fed rate hike aren’t well-suited amid impending recession fears. The Index of Consumer Expectations declined to its lowest level since May 1980 at 47.3. The downbeat figures also joined a 0.20% contraction by the US Industrial Production for June to favor XAUUSD buyers. However, US Retail Sales for June grew 1.0% MoM versus 0.8% expected and -0.1% prior (revised from -0.3%) whereas the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index edged higher to 51.5 in July's flash estimate, versus 49.9 expected and 50.0 prior.

Fed policymakers intervened to cool down market expectations of a 1.0% rate hike on Friday, which in turn helped the Gold Price to defend the yearly low marked on Thursday, not to forget positing a rebound from the key support line on a closing basis.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Friday that June's 75 basis points rate hike was a "big move" and added that the Fed wants policy transition to be orderly, as reported by Reuters. On the other hand, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Friday that the "Fed is working on getting down inflation without stalling economy." Further, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard sounded neutral as he said, per Reuters, on Friday that it wouldn't make too much of a difference to do a 100 basis points (bps) or a 75 bps rate hike at the next meeting. In this regard, Wall Street Journal’s (WSJ) Nick Timiraos also came out with a piece that turned down the market’s expectations of a 1.0% Fed rate hike.

For the first time in 20 years, the value of the euro and the US dollar are equal.

For the first time in 20 years, the value of the euro and the US dollar are equal.

New York (CNN Business) For the first time in 20 years, the exchange rate between the euro (EUU) and the US dollar has reached parity -- meaning the two currencies are worth the same.

The euro hit $1 on Tuesday, down about 12% since the start of the year. Fears of recession on the continent abound, stoked by high inflation and energy supply uncertainty caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The European Union, which received roughly 40% of its gas through Russian pipelines before the war, is attempting to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas. At the same, Russia has throttled back gas supplies to some EU countries and recently cut the flow in the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany by 60%.

Now that critical piece of gas import infrastructure in Europe, has been shut down for scheduled maintenance due to last 10 days. German officials fear that it may not be turned on again.

The energy crisis comes alongside an economic slowdown, which has cast doubts over whether the European Central Bank can adequately tighten policy to bring down inflation. The ECB announced that it will hike interest rates this month for the first time since 2011, as the eurozone inflation rate sits at 8.6%.

Europe hasn't been this cheap for Americans in decades

But some say the ECB is far behind the curve, and that a hard landing is all but inevitable. Germany recorded its first trade deficit in goods since 1991 last week as fuel prices and general supply chain chaos significantly increased the price of imports.

"Given the nature of Germany's exports which are commodity-price sensitive, it remains hard to imagine that the trade balance could improve significantly from here in the next few months given the expected slowdown in the eurozone economy," Saxo Bank foreign exchange strategists wrote in a recent note.

A series of aggressive interest rate hikes by central banks, including the Fed, coupled with slowing economic growth will keep pressure on the euro while sending investors toward the US dollar as a safe haven, say analysts.

The US Federal Reserve is well ahead of Europe on tightening, having hiked interest rates by 75 basis points while indicating that more rate increases will come this month.

This safe haven retreat into the US dollar could become even more extreme if Europe and the US enters a recession, warned Deutsche Global Head of FX Research George Saravelos in a note last week.

A situation where the euro is trading below the US dollar at a range of $0.95 to $0.97 could "well be reached," wrote Saravelos, "if both Europe and the US find themselves slip-sliding in to a (deeper) recession in Q3 while the Fed is still hiking rates."

That's good news for Americans with plans to visit Europe this summer but could spell bad news for economic global stability.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD sees exhaustion around $1,820 after a downside move, DXY skids

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD sees exhaustion around $1,820 after a downside move, DXY skids

👉Gold price is expected to rebound as a retest of Wednesday’s low shows a loss of downside momentum.

👉The hawkish commentary from Fed Powell has put the gold prices on tenterhooks for a prolonged period.

👉The DXY is performing lackluster on the downbeat US PMI.

Gold price (XAU/USD) is hoping for a rebound as the gold bears are indicating a loss of momentum after testing Wednesday’s low around $1,820.00. The precious metal is oscillating in a narrow range of $1,822.67-1,825.47 from the late New York session and is now showing some signs of an upside break of the rangebound move.

The commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell’s testimony that the central bank is ‘unintentionally committed’ to bringing price stability in the US economy has kept the gold prices on the tenterhooks. To achieve the targeted inflation rate, the Fed is needed to elevate interest rates quickly. Comparing the current inflation rate with the targeted one, the former is at least four times of the latter.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) is expecting a downside move on displaying underperformance on the Purchase Managers Index (PMI) front. The Manufacturing PMI landed at 52.4 much lower than forecasts and the prior print of 56 and 57 respectively. Also, the Services PMI slipped sharply to 51.6 from the consensus of 53.5 and the prior print of 53.4.

Gold technical analysis

On a broader note, the gold prices are displaying topsy-turvy moves in a range of $1,821.72-1,847.95. The 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1,828.30 and $1,831.58 respectively are scaling lower, which strengthens a downside bias. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is displaying signs of momentum loss on the downside. The momentum oscillator is gauging support around 40.00 levels.

GBP/USD teases bears around 1.2250 ahead of UK inflation, Fed Chair Powell’s testimony

GBP/USD teases bears around 1.2250 ahead of UK inflation, Fed Chair Powell’s testimony

👉 GBP/USD snaps two-day uptrend, flirts with intraday low at the latest.

👉 Brexit pessimism joins UK’s political chaos to portray downbeat conditions at home.

👉 BOE’s failure to impress bulls highlights UK CPI amid hopes of faster/heavier rate hikes.

👉 Powell needs to justify the biggest rate increase since 1994 and signal Fed’s aggression to please USD bulls.

GBP/USD fails to stay on the bull’s radar as it retreats to 1.2250 during the mid-Asian session on Wednesday. The cable pair’s latest weakness could be linked to the market’s risk-off mood, as well as anxiety ahead of the key UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Testimony. Also drowning the quote is the pessimism surrounding Brexit and the UK’s political conditions, not to for fears of disappointment from the Bank of England (BOE).

Market sentiment sours amid fears of the Fed’s aggression, as well as concerning the US recession. US President Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen tried to convince markets that the recession fears aren’t inevitable. Further, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said that there will be no rapid return for the U.S. economy to the experience of the previous decade of stable growth, jobs and inflation, Reuters reported. While portraying the mood, S&P 500 Futures and the US 10-year Treasury yields fade the recent upside momentum.

On the other hand, fears that Fed’s Powell will push for more rate hikes, as well as downbeat expectations from the UK CPI, also weigh on the GBP/USD prices. Forecasts suggest that the UK CPI could ease to 0.6% MoM in May versus 2.5% prior even if it manages to stay firmer with 9.1% YoY figures, compared to 9.0% prior. Further, the Retail Price Index is also expected to ease while the Producer Price Index may increase during the stated month.

Elsewhere, a study by the Resolution Foundation think tank and London School of Economics mentioned that the British workers’ real pay will be cut by £470 thanks to Brexit, per the UK Mirror. “The research estimates that labor productivity will be reduced by 1.3% by the end of the decade by the changes in trading rules alone,” mentioned the news.

Furthermore, major rail strikes in the UK and Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s struggle to defend the position, especially following the allegations of breaking covid rules, exert downside pressure on the GBP/USD prices.

Looking forward, the GBP/USD pair may witness a kneejerk upside in case of the firmer UK inflation data. However, the recovery could gain a boost if Fed’s Powell fails to impress the greenback buyers.

Technical analysis

The GBP/USD pair’s successful trading above the 100-HMA and 200-HMA, as well as the RSI’s support to the recent higher lows in prices, keeps the pair buyers hopeful. That said, the latest pullback remains elusive until the quote stays above the 200-HMA support of 1.2230.

Meanwhile, recovery moves need validation from the 1.2310 hurdle, comprising the nearby triangle’s resistance line.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD tumbles below $1,830 as uncertainty over Fed Powell’s testimony soars

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD tumbles below $1,830 as uncertainty over Fed Powell’s testimony soars

👉 Gold prices have extended their losses after slipping below the cushion of $1,830.00.

👉 Fed Powell’s testimony is expected to be extremely hawkish considering the runaway inflation rate.

👉 The EU is supposed to ban gold trading from Russia.

Gold price (XAU/USD) has extended its losses in the Asian session after violating the critical support of $1,830.00.  The precious metal was declining gradually earlier as investors were on the sidelines ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell’s testimony. Now, a decisive move below $1,830.00 has infused an adrenaline rush into the gold bears, which may drag the gold prices significantly lower.

Investors are hoping that Fed Powell is going to dictate an extremely hawkish stance on July monetary policy. The Fed has already elevated its interest rates to 1.50-1.75% in the last four months, however, the impact on the inflation mess is still not visible. This has supported the US dollar index (DXY), which is attempting to sustain above Tuesday’s high at 104.60.

On the global front, European Union (EU) Leaders Summit could ban imports or exports of gold or both from Russia after banning oil imports, as per Reuters. If that occurs, it may bring more uncertainty to the gold prices.

The monetary policy plans from various central banks are indicating hawkish guidance for the upcoming policies, which will keep the gold bulls on the tenterhooks.

Gold technical analysis

On an hourly scale, gold prices have displayed a downside break of the Descending Triangle, whose horizontal support is placed from $1,834.39 while the downward sloping trendline is plotted from Thursday’s high at $1,857.04. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,835.74 is declining, which adds to the downside filters. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into a bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which signals more downside ahead.

 WTI Price Analysis: 100-SMA tests bears below $116.00

WTI Price Analysis: 100-SMA tests bears below $116.00

 WTI Price Analysis: 100-SMA tests bears below $116.00 

15 June 2022, 01:49 

•WTI remains pressured around weekly low after breaking short-term key support lines.

•Downbeat RSI (14), not oversold, keeps oil bears hopeful.

•Clear downside break of $115.00 will confirm a ‘double top’ formation, which could facilitate further declines.

•Bulls remain cautious until witnessing a sustained run-up beyond 121.35.

WTI crude oil prices stay depressed at the weekly bottom, recently sidelined near $115.60-50, as sellers cheer a clear downside break of the short-term key support during Wednesday’s Asian session.

It’s worth noting that the black gold broke two support lines stretched from May but the 100-SMA challenges the bears. However, RSI (14) line joins the trend line breakdowns to keep the sellers hopeful.

In addition to the 100-SMA level near $115.30, Monday’s bottom surrounding $115.15 and the $115.00 threshold also challenge the commodity sellers.

Though, a sustained break of the $115.00 will confirm the double-top bearish chart pattern and direct the quote further south. In that case, the 200-SMA level of $110.86 and the monthly low near $110.00 could gain the market’s attention.

Following that, a downward trajectory towards May 19 swing low near $103.00 can’t be ruled out.

Alternatively, the monthly support-turned-resistance line near $115.85 appears the immediate hurdle to challenge the WTI rebound. After that, an upward sloping trend line from May 10, previous support around $116.55, will be crucial to watch for recovery moves.

Above all, the commodity buyers should wait for a clear upside break of the recent double tops before taking the driver’s seat, which in turn highlights $121.35 as the key level.